User [gary fullett /152.205.120.241] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:56:57 EST 2000 User [Gordy /63.88.62.96] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:57:37 EST 2000 hi gordy Hey Gary did u catch the move in cocoa and grains no, still just watching User [mrj /206.251.171.178] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:58:09 EST 2000 markets are better now than before Gary and Gordy User [lmarsh /12.14.197.202] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:58:23 EST 2000 hi mr jay Hi Hi marsh markets look like they will be decent for the rest of the yr Hello everyone, hope all had a good day. User [sherri /209.100.189.156] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:58:55 EST 2000 hi sherri I see the grains closed lower mean anything? I will be putting an options page on the site hi everyone yes hey sherri I think sideways in the grains for a a week or so User [Frank /207.230.57.67] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 20:59:28 EST 2000 ok Good evening everyone I want to talk about the grains tonight Hi Frank hi sherri any questions? Hi Mr J, and everyone User [SteveF /216.76.154.65] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:00:30 EST 2000 User [Guest /171.218.82.50] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:00:35 EST 2000 hey Steve hey gary,....that spread stuff is interesting. Don't have to go over it tonight, but I think more discussion would be good. Hey mrj and all hello steve, frank Hi Imarsh, george angell has a very good book on spreads User [amos /62.0.146.157] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:02:07 EST 2000 ok frank, I'm making a note of it. thanks morning amos I can discuss spreads User [Lavona /207.50.1.171] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:02:29 EST 2000 Hello Amos hi but I want Hi everyone to disuss the charts feom tuesday night so we catch up k k since I statred last night good morning Amos I would like amos to lead us off hello to all that came in after me and then when he is done I can talk abit about spreads -> Hey Amos, that question u posted sounds like u been sleeping around with Gann. so amos if you can discuss grains first no, with gwineth then I can talk about spreads afer u User [sal /206.175.233.60] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:04:41 EST 2000 Paltro? I wish SInce I was not ready to discuss "Grains" hisal is there any particular question that any one has, either from hi hi sal a Wyckoff point of view , or their "position?" gold User [eric /206.98.11.137] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:05:43 EST 2000 hi sal hogs are interesting too hi eric I dont wyckoff view sal, gold is a metal, not a problem hi mrj and everyone today it was a problem hi eric tumbeled some eh? because you got stopped out? any thoughts on metal amos? no should i have? how about grains? I wanted to be long gold and it was stopped out today, what is the problem? was anyone surprised by the action of the grains today? If hte market goes against you and you get stopped out--does that constitue a problem? where are grains going? not really to gary & amos question no, as long as you follow the plan, amos -> utook the incorrect position, like me todaay in grains, no problem just expensive. amos mentioend that 538 was resistance in the beans the stop was there to protect assets, if analysis was wrong ,..correct? If you don't by a ticket you can't win. The stop is to run business. bull Steve How can you think that all your business decisions will make money>? correct ino one said that User [fibo /204.119.225.150] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:10:06 EST 2000 hi fibo hi Fibo hi fibo We are starting on a left foot. hello everyone hi fibo fibo Stop for a moment. you based you stop on last 8 days right? The guest asked where the grains are going--anybody who says they know is a liar. Nobody knows. but we can make educated decsisons ok thanks gary by watchiing the market action your thoughts/ bet wheat goes down amos What we are trying to say here is that if you identify the market conditions that is why we use stops to protect ourselves we never know where the markets are going and know where the supply and resistance exist- we can make an educated guess good answer but making good business decsions will help us limit risk Interesting that guess and guest are related (i realized it as I type) and a chance to make money how do we identify resistance? amos a question please The point about the beans is that we are3 still in a daily range. wheat? The weekly chart already showed a higher high -so from a larger point of view the trend is mildly bullish. After 538 the next resistance (from the monthly chart is $6.00. we build (oooops) our knowledge base from what transpired on the chart- and we realize that we cannot know how long a move will take. The switch from time frame to time frame--is SUPPOSED to help us a question about the macro-micro overcome the confusion of the TIME element. Most of us meet here every nite and we are impressed by what you watch longer charts but base stop on daily? a la gold? today did. It has a meaning some times and sometimes it does not. Sal, please explain your question didnt you say the other day that your gold stop was under 8 days low? yes but you valued the weekly chart to go long? yes so are your stops based always on daily I thought that putting a stop below a few days, did take care of the weekly, Now, if you say that the correct stop is below 280 which is the stop on the April gold--you may have a wonderful point. But I thought that risking 8 10 bucks here, was too much ok got it good questions sal Look, we never go to talk here about actual tactics. We are still at the beginning of discussing strategies. amos can you discuss the action of corn -> we should from the charts that were sent on tuesday There is a hell of a difference between the two. Let me open thsm, just a sec please do fibo had asked about them last night and we never got to them sorry fibo about that that was a strategy ! and the rest f the group no problem gary -> Ok, I have the monthly corn. Of course the volume stinks--what kind of volume is this? when I send the charts I want to make sure we review them but if you all look at chart 8? at least within the same week not good till I find a better source we see clearly that the area of 240-250 , or lower was a barrier for the last year and a half. We also see that the large decline from the 550 area has been stopped and we have been, more or less, in a sideways action over the last year and a hyalf. The big decision is to anlyze the last year and a half and decide if this is accumulation. User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:21:18 EST 2000 The human tendency is to think that after a big decline it is natural for markets to go thru accumulation. W R O N G!!!!! silver has not been under accumulation for the past 15 years. Sugar has not been, gold has not been. In order to decide whether see any of the "STARS" on the Wyckoff davep thanx for that great post on the site 4 phase of the market schema we must study the volume carefully. h i Unfortunately, it is hard to do that from a chart that shows you partial volu7me. Hi Gary, my pleasure! Hoever, let us assume that we SEE accumulation. WHat part of that accumulation, on the monthly chart can we say we have already seen? any one want s to venture? since mid 98 u talkin about beans? corn, chart 8 yes steve sc ar st more fibo sos on monthly, say a rally , then a range? -> Garys charts seldom print out on my unit jump across creek ps trend line breaks For some reason (which shall remain anonimous) there is a tendency here to ignore the PRELIMINARY support. It is so important , I cannot begin to tell you. YOu know why? ooops i forgot that ditto :) why Because that is THE SIGNAL the CM sends to his cronies. These people are talking to each other thru the long term charts (you better believe very great point this statement becuase I Will expect you to challenge me in the future again and again on it!!!! it is the first sign that the long term down is about to come to an end!!!!! and the preliminary point (support or resistance-supply) is the point where the CM is GETTING OUT!!!! until the prelimary support there is NO sign that the downtrend is ending ps was on 9-30 98 He does not play for the last penny. of his shorts He needs a range for his operation. Gary mentioned this many times. yes I see that Gary is itching to get in--please go ahead User [eric /206.98.11.137] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:28:57 EST 2000 Gary, go ahead no amos u r fine continue I just wanted to add fluff lol :) I speak too much !!! I thought that in my enthusiasm, I miss a small boat and you want to make it more explicit? not enough okay . what I wanted to say that a downtrend stays in tact basically till the PS is seen it is at this point where the CM begins to cover his shorts anticipation of the pending up trend to begin after the D=SC SC the cm will buy on breaks so he will cover his shorts diring the PS and the rest during the SC then after the SC comes the AR then a retest it is during this retest that the CM accumaltes during the trading range User [Guest /171.218.82.50] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:33:01 EST 2000 okay I done :) you done good amos carry on soldier Now the important point of the preliminary support, and this is a little secret, IS many times, in an orderly accumulation or distribution--the point of PS will be the point that the retest, or secondary test will look for. If you draw a horizontal on all ps points--you will be able to identify exact points of ST> This is not very frequent--- but very important. 100% retracement, or ther abouts? This is the CLAssical head and shoulders paradigm. Now look ath the monthlly corn. We had a ps, a selling climax and then the text of last decmber just poked, or sprung the PS, not the SC. DO you see this? y User [Randy /204.246.241.204] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:36:20 EST 2000 y c that So let us count the signs we have on the monethly corn: 1. We maby have seen a secondary test plus a sign of strength. If anyone doesnt understand this is VERY important it is the KEY to the begiining of an uptrend 2. We broke a very steep downtrendline AND a less steep one. 3. We arre clearly in a range on the monthly please ask questions!!!! 4. We have an important creek which is the 5-6 of 1998 5. Any thing else? joc You see how obedient I am--Gary says ask questions and I ask : ^ ) mrj--what joc on the monthly? today sc with high volume? joc is a jump over the creek Well, if that is true--then the chart we are looking at is NO good. creek, 230,253,258,270,283? Frank, that cannot be, A creek is a band, but not a rock band 239 6/8 Are we clearly in a jump? or is it still within the monthly range? in range I need help here Do you all see the problem we have in corn? highest high since august 98 within range creek area is providing resistance we have a clear range, but smack above the range there is a damn creek from 1998! The monthly chart in corn is not easy folks! 233 2/8 highest high before today User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:43:38 EST 2000 User [George K /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 21:43:44 EST 2000 it is not that after 239 there is clear sailing--we have to climb not a wall of worry, but a wall of resistance_supply! The road to $3.00 is not easy around the 260 area Please forget your postition in the market, and your corn in the field--k just look at the chart --at reality!!!! A good reality check tells us that we can climb out of this "Accumulation area" welcome goerge but we will have to cope with a lot of supply on the road. yes fibo Now the next month or two, volumje will tell a lot. You cannot be short corn-- but YOu have to realize that the long side may be tedious. so today's action was not a joc? ,not even an itch I am kidding, I do not know. pleas explainjoc Jock itch I'm trying to learn amos It is certainly a positive action. (I know mrj, me and my early morning wierd sense of humor) no jump over creek on monthly mrj, but your are talking daily joc , correct? ok I understand thank you Look, a jump across the creek, at least according to classical Wyckoff is a very wide, strong umphy rally with large volume and large range. Did we have it? last night amos said charts should update daily I do not know. we may This is a good point mrj. We are looking at chart 8 and it lies to us. A good trader said today on one of the forum-- he said, I paraphrase: our weeklys & monthlys are updated daily.. drawing a horizontal line across top of 233 2/8 would seem to claas today's action on the monthly up to this dat as a joc day what was action today mrj? my quotes must be wrong By how much did we cross that bariier? mrj? up 239 6/8 barrier close was at 235 1/4 on the july high was 239 3/4 so that is 4 cents. Not sure it is enough k 235 2/8 close Is it true that may bens are up 9 cents? what qualifies it as enough yes night session that is good sign! yes grains are all up oooof corn up 4 cents wheat up 1 /14 beans up 9 where do you find nite quotes? Ok, what fibo said ties exactly tothis discussion--you have to look at all time frames CBOT especially at crucial points to correctly assess that state of the market I have live quotes guest ok most free services will not update the higher time frames and that leaves you half blind. You see our discussion here tonite--we really want to assess whetehr http://www.cbot.com look for "Project A" we havge a bone fide jump across tha creek-- I think that if we ok jump the 240--we still have to cope with the old creek (on the way down) at 250--but if we get to 250 with gusto--high volume--that bodes well for the corn . any questions ? 'fraid to ask why? re prices . . . please, if you are afraid to ask, then do as Gary said-go sit in the corner l don't get a clear answer or no answer do the DAILY prices u & Gary use contain night session as overlay, or separate, or do you add them to day's session or? I never said that Let me ask you davep--we are sitting here and watching beans up 9 cents didn't want to take us off track, but really want to know do you think this is done by you and me? NO it is the CM bidding prices hard Should that be in the daily range for fiday or not? friday good ? dave understand that; just want 2 know how to account for 'em on chart the market NEVER sleeps! the night session begins the day session why shouldn't they be on Thursday's data? so it is included on the daly charts Tokyo is up, Singapore is up, Europe will get up etc. the night session is the beginning for friday Davep Because it is Friday in Israel!!! when the grain market closes at 115 pm the daily chart is rawn than at night begin the market aagin since those night prices are traded on different days in different parts of world, don't we arbitrarily put 'em . . . . davep, many quote/chart providers do not include the night session in their data. davep it is a moot point. Night sessions belong to tomorrow. ok just read, thanks ... davep take their word we don't use the night session fibo, that is a problem fibo you dont look at the night session for your support resistance? for what it is worth the monthly vol on the corn as of now is 866,220 and still have 11 days to go that may be one of the problems of the corn belt why amos? User [Guest] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:01:54 EST 2000 because a population that does not use nite sessions--dwindles just lost me amos what do you mean? User [Frank /207.230.57.67] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 22:02:34 EST 2000 Well, Gary, if you do not understand, you need a doctor he means "playing" at night with the night session you don't always see the gaps and we think they are important fibo said: we do not use night sessions. i see i dont is 866,000 high? SAL!!! yes it is on the monthly with still 11 days to go fibo I have a question if you dont mind sure do you use the higher high if so on the night sesson and lower low So if we close the month on a high note--that may qualify as a very strong sos do you feel gaps are important? yes y you are talking to me? yes why significance do they have for u? fibo amos no one likes talking to u :)lol amos lol There is a whole theory of gaps, all kinds of gaps in Edward and Magee u r not nice :) we have studied the gaps along with other studies and find them useful do you feel gaps are always filled fibo? no k o.k. just like a gap across a creek line they are a tool or a gap under an ice line okay very good I understand then Corn is at 240!! that is good, what's the news? amos the selling climax on the corn was 1,711,362 we dont follow news!!! I wouldn't be nice if I lived in north africa either :) frank !!!1 Frank, I am not in africa (although sometimes it feels that way) They move isrial again? (there are some baboons here) lol recently, frank news on tv just talks about drought.. i don't go by the news me either fibo fibo????? then why did the market break so hard today after being higher lack of drought huh?:) you wanted to know what the news was You don't have to be nice to be an efffective teacher amos fibo what was your point about volume with 11 days left?> it broke down so cm could buy more it looks like to me :-) we have a saying that "the shy does not learn and the stern does not teach" me too fibo me too :) any questions about corn tonight Are we clear on the monthly of corn? because we still have 11 days of volume this month to add to it sal thank you for that great discussion amos thanks fibo so if vol. is large now..it should be larger by the end of the month 11 trading days sal The main point from our analysis is that you should NOT be short the grains. k It was 1.5 million last month k Now how to buy them here--I would use every daily thrust you can. thank you very much for the grains discussion amos this accumaltion can be very significant yes mrj but it was a down month.. he was bad last night and idnt discuss it fibo LOL:) amos 's pointis well taken was only referring to volume Please, I want to emhaise the significance of the 2.50 in corn--the the grains are underging accumaultion way the market will handle this area-- will be a strong inhdicaiotn for the next and the long side should be the only side that should be probed mark up phase we have talked about the grains over the last few weksa and our analysis remember, you do not see anything around 250 in the dailoy chart! has been correct so far yes amos if long would u liquidate at 250? part would u rebuy on a rally above 250 after the pullback? 250, is resistance. You should always take some profits at resistance money manageemant and risk control now, if you have one contract--you are up corn's creek what grain do you feel is the strongest? lol@amos or Dawsons creek the grain of salt amos do u have a comment about the S and P s today? yes amos explain "up corn's creek" please lol I think we had a cear buying climas in the Nascaq and a nice automatic reaction. joke fibo thank you for your impute We bounced today--and that means that the nasdaq should be in a range between the "bottom" of the ar and the top of the buying climax. reaction to be brought? or run your welcome i'm just trying to learn more too ok u r helping me too fibo The sand P is in a significant rally. The 50% retracement in the dow is around 10700 :-) I did not study it too deep. But this rally is so strong--that it will scare many shorts next tim we start down in earnest. if this is distributioh--then it is a masterful!!! In order to do a good anlaysis--we need all the carts of all the indexes and all time frames. Just saying words is bull. At any rate, we will not talk about the subject i posted about--we will do it next week k ok k thank you amos davep--good post are there any questions hanks Amos User [George K /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Thu Mar 16 22:19:49 EST 2000 that any one would like to ask george did u have any questions? please post on the boards Gary would you like me to fax you a great monthly chart with all the vol. ? BTW-- you may see now--how the CRB was a good predictor that commodities will rally I get emails saying that poele like to read the posts though they dont post themselves yes yes fibo--do that and he will send all of us PLEASE PLEASE fobo PLease I will be your best friend i will attach it to an e-mail... seriously lol fibo not fobo sorry yikes glad I talk better than I speak lol An important point, if I may. and I speak too fast :) please amos we want this site to be a learnign center for all The language we use has a great influence on out thought, thought processes and our actions. There is a tendency (and I suffered from it for years!) for new traders to talk in bombasitc terms: The market CRASHES; Beans in the teens; we are going to the moonn etc etc. This is VERY B A D. You should try to talk in terms of FACTS. We are in a rally, or reaction, the trend is this or that. Try to avoid hype--it is the food of losers. that is all you are very correct amos good point dont tell that to neil armstrong how about neil diamond? lol@sal when u talk bombastically u are programing yourself, for non functional thought habits. garganrouos , Frank sal :) mayonaise tonight was educational thank you User [Lavona] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:27:05 EST 2000 u spell that right amos? I apprecaite the talk on corn amos and so did I thanks that means that other nites were causeing ignorance? is there a topic that any one would like addressed on Monday? Why are you thakning me? it is a part of every nite here- to learn the language because your analysis was very good of market and trading. We learned to day past participle--tha t is all I thank u because I love u my mom taught me to say thanks :-) me too fibo we want to learn ok that is why we are here to earn and hopefully profit we can all help each other become bettre traders the greatest appreciation will be when you come back and say: I made 10,000 today ! using this and that principle--that will be a nice thank you note. we all would like to,say that :) but we all know that wyckoff is the way that is why we come every night remember--if you trade correctly--you will succeed in this business. it is business. it you get stopped out by doing a correct trade--it is much better than making money with a bad trade VERY WELL SAID there is also the matter of sincronicity thta is important the more you do right things Frank? the better trder u become that should be posted on everyone's wall and business is first assumeing and then managing risk u will always have losers but good analysis and correct trades doesnt guarentte profits but it will help in the long run The total is more than the parts amos that is synergy trading correctly in the long run I believe will lead to profits but trading poorly but making money will lead tio ruin good night everyone thanks amos and gary we must develep good trading habits gn nite mrj nite mr J gn nite mrj User [mrj] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:33:17 EST 2000 gn gn nite all...and thank you any other questions for me as amos went to have breakfast nite sherri User [sherri] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:33:48 EST 2000 when you trade friday-imagine what the weekly chart will look like. cocoa gary target? in this area 950 that is the next resistance cocoa may make a porkbellies on us I would rebuy at the 885 amos? do u like chochoate sal? there is a huge monthly thrust in cocoa y hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm where amos? last month high was in the 800, I think I may be wrong the weekly resisatnce is at 1025 after 950 but there is a thrust the large res is around 1150 but the rally is so vigorous--it is not a weak mrket any longer we may have seen a strange, but kniving terminal shakeout. are there any other questions otherwise I will see u all on Monday night..... yes amos and we were all there for the bottom nite Gary thanks gn we sent this chart User [Frank] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:37:42 EST 2000 nite all nite gary / amos thanks when the market was bottoming nite and thanks amos User [amos] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:38:03 EST 2000 good nite good folks Thanks again thanks amos and gary gn see u all monday unless u have a question ok good night everyone nite davep thanks Amos & Gary k, nite y'all User [sal] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:38:57 EST 2000 thank you all god night good User [davep] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:39:01 EST 2000 User [SteveF] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:39:07 EST 2000 good night to all fibo thanx again nite all and good trading User [eric] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:39:12 EST 2000 nite all, best wishes for tomorrow User [gary fullett] left forum at Thu Mar 16 22:39:18 EST 2000