Good evening everyone does difference in moves of contracts also warn I will talk about spreads for about a half hour tonight yes where front month goes up back goes down and vice versa yep I will talk about spreads with the same commodity as well as spreads in differnet commodities great you read my mind.... :) User [jim /171.222.70.212] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:03:32 EST 2000 hi, all. I want to wait a few minutes hi jim so poeple who are late will join' several people emailed me and cant make it tonight as there is lightning looking forward to the "what constitues a good trade" when we get to it as well User [eric /206.98.11.182] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:04:24 EST 2000 and they dont want to turn the computer on hi eric good evening to all hi eric, jim before I begin on spreads does anyone have any questions from last night or today on wyckoff..... ? User [Lavona /207.50.1.131] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:05:22 EST 2000 hey y'all , remember all our stock friends who warned how wild commodities are ? poetic justcie:) User [RobinH /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:05:36 EST 2000 Hi all true sal User [Peggy /206.173.161.96] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:05:56 EST 2000 commodities seem to be breeze relative to stocks these days evening, everyone hi Lavona & peggy hi peggy it seems if you are in biotech or internet yikes hi lavona there is risk in both but stocks have been wild okay... User [fibo /204.119.225.32] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:06:45 EST 2000 It hasn't been so bad just pick quialty stock I will begin hey fibo hi fibo User [Frank /207.230.57.37] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:06:57 EST 2000 h fibo Hi fibo hello fibo what uis that lavona :) hi, frank ? hello everyone :) I want to make a few statements if you dont mind User [jim /171.222.109.55] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:07:58 EST 2000 as you all know amos and I both are big believers in the works of richard D WQyckoff we believe with all our hearts that his principles best describe market action and behaivior hello every one but our backrounds with wyckoff and experiences are differnt y I am a former floor trader hi frank so when I look at wyckoff many times I look at it from a perspective of intraday theu several days I understand longer term trands and action -> 80 degrees here today, can u believe it? but I am very sensative to short term does everyone understand me so far? sometimes when I think a market is in an uptrend I will sell at resistance y yes yes y y or I will ook at a spread and liquidate look this doesnt mean I turned bearish but it means for a day or so I may want to be out amos will many times -> had a couple tornadoes about 20 miles from here look at the whole picture IE monthly and will stay in and maybe ride thru a correction wyckodd hiself was longer term in his thoughts wyckoff so sometimes he and I will argue semantics -> the sky looked that way here tonight when I barned my goats but what is important is that we follow wyckoff principles and how it relates to good and proper trading we both have the goal to educate is amos strictly futures? i.e., no stocks? and hopefully we all can be bettre traders we want to make this site a haven for good trading There is another point, if I may? and good market analysis please do amos Let's be open about it. Gary runs a business. He is taking care of customers and if he can save them a penny here and there- it is his funciont\. I sit here in the dark and analyze markets. I can afford to be more theoretical and stoic about things. I do think that for the purpose of a class, my appraoch , right now, i s is more didcatic--but we both come from two different frames of mind at this point, that's all very well said amos amos, I do not participate in other forums... are we pretty much the best? since I deal with the public -> interesting about wycof principals, the intrinsic value of stocks is pretty fixed and the prices change only with buying and selling, Am I your first asks the guy fromthe girl? so I am very interested in preseravtion of clients equity "Damn all of you guys , you all askthe same question> Of COurse you are the first! si if I am long and i see resitance I always error in taking profits Spoken like a true Gentleman, Amos!!! -> unless there is a managenent problem, :) ! :) if you knew amos he is no genetleman lol a scholar yes but no gentlman anyway YES -> supply and demand in commoditys has more to do with the trend I, for one, am not bothered by the diversity (gosh I hate that word) we appreciate both of you amos talks great thoery and he is right on thoery I have my experiences from the floor I also give great phone and clients interests so amos and I differ from this perspective we may both may disagree in this forum and I hope you understand that this discussions are to make us see better trading actually just different time frames... si I hope you all can understand and see this time zones we want to make this site the best for traders and informative okay... I learn alot from Gary and Amos' "Discussions" :) does everyone understand what I am speaking about? ditto SteveF if we are argumenatative y y yes and thank you it is becasue as amos told me 19 yrs ago we go to battle veryday -> I heard from jp morgan last night. I'm working on sugar will send to you when finished and we must fight the markets and never let out guard down long as u guys dont start throwing things and break my screen go ahead and disagree :) frank lol okay... and amos thought i wasnt listening in his class 19 rs ago :) okay I want to talk about spreads what we are saying is that they really do not disagree...... I worked with some great spreaders on the floor while I was at the CME correct jim we follow wyckoff y and they taught me some things that I feel important wyckoff believed that you buy the strongest and sell the weakest within a group -> I ordered two books today from Traders press, old richard wayne sweat is getting pretty familiar with the place doen here -> he drives UPS if you want to buy the automotive group and GM has a better chart pattern than ford does that not limit your profit?? you buy GM not necessairly jim -> in school togather actaully it can increase your profit or limit risk -> what books frank but I will explain ther e is always risk so in the grain market les take the soy complex soybeans... what are the by products of soybeans? tofu meal and oil sm, bo very good steve sit in the corner sal :) -> PPS Trading System by curtusa arnold and well sorry, if one is long soymeal dont be sorry it was cute and short soy oil this is an example of a bull spread generaly as soymeal generaly will move up faster than soy oil User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:27:40 EST 2000 and soy meal will move faster than soy oil on the way down -> and the taylor trading technique, george douglas taylor hi davep hi everyone with me so far ? y y y questions? hi davep y hi fibo so if u look at the 2 charts u will see that soymeal is near its highs -> are they related to Gann and soy oil is nearer its lows -> both recommended by Linda Bradford Raschke, She recommended another one in her interview, this means that meal is stronger than oil since the grains have been moving up this bull spread is working -> ok I mentioend this spread several months ago -> but traders press does not have it in stock depending on where one could have put this spread on you could be making money on both ends of the spread why are spreads so advantages because margin is mch less limit risc than the out right positions and if a limit move happens you will not be overexposed generally yes steve but no always so a trader can put on much more spreads thn he can an outright postion with less margin -> The thing I like about Gann is his method of swing trading, money management, telling time , are we long both meal and oil? and possibly larger profits and loss -> and use of range long meal short oil in this example jim okay so far? explain the limit move not being overexposed with an ex please there are amny types of spreads with futures-options intermarket spreads intramarket spreads I will be going over these over the next few weeksa weeks -> all that exotic stuf with the fans and the trend lines is best proved with mathmatics so when I see a market like soymeal vs oil and I see meal gaining on oil User [kevin /146.115.59.119] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:33:54 EST 2000 meaning oil lagging meal so if meal is up 1 dollar and il is unchanged -> but every one tries to do it before have the basics, like riding a motor cycle before u learn to ride a bycyle this to me means that the spread is bullish and I would look for a rally if meal is underpreforming oilthan I look for a market pullback say meal is unchanged and oil is up 20 understand the relationship? -> I have a really nice cat on my lap y y y fridays rians closed relatively weak -> -> -> -> -> -> -> -> though above support -> -> Do you have your account with Gary? monday morning meal was much stronger than oil this meant to me a rally was going to happen it did the rest of the day monday -> puter went crazy into tuesday but yesterday meal lagged oil this is why I mentioned that I thought the market would pullback today meal lagged oil today or meal went down faster than oil -> gann has a method of swing trading that works off the previous moves, and is very good at in, so to me the market will be lower tomorrow as well gary are spreads also based on cash prices this is what the spreader show me I am still bullish grains and will buy support very interesting but short term I look for weakness early tomorow yes, very good illustration yes they can be sal I never talk thoery lmarsh on charts that show me it is the best way to learn from examples -> corperating with the trend, and makes a very good mental picture of what is going on that is why Imnetiond this last night would you call yourself a swing trader? remember? even though the grains finished on the highs y Yes, only too well :^) User [fibo /204.119.225.32] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:39:13 EST 2000 i stop swigging 10 yrs ago :) i mentioedn it to ya lamrsh is everyone with me? does this help u -> no account with gary, if i get the kinks out and get profitable i will open one with him as well as rhe one I have y y or shouldnt i bring this up yes y no, no, it is helpful should I continue/? very helpful please I want to welcome kevin to our chat be nice he is new :) just wake us up when Amos is on stage welcome kevin we dont bite User [eric /206.98.11.182] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:40:38 EST 2000 okay peggy hi everyone amos bite I smooze hey hello kevin hi kevin hi, Kevin. You are going to learn, learn, learn ask any questions kevin open forum don/ so I watch the small nuances welcome kevin becasue that was my trianing and backround I run quickly evaluate and reenter amos and I differ this way as I mentioedn but one must have their own niche and own style that is comfortable to them always have an objective and risk control so if a spread should be bullish example meal oil bonds =10 yr notes Pork bellies -hogs and the market moves up and the bull spread doesnt work this should be a red flag on the market maybe not being so strong and may correct this to me will save people money gary what if meal did go up more than oil with little action but oil even though lower have very wide action does that protend ? though it isnt wyckoff per se had if meal is more bullish on the rally portend? or less bearish on the break this is positive dont worry about the market action with the spread so much but the net,,, okay? I will go into more detail tomorrow k I just wanted to meation this tonight to get started with it remember when I mentioned crude oil User [SteveF /209.214.195.156] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 21:46:49 EST 2000 y and I said that I thought that the market would pull back y when it closed on its highs -> Gann talks about distribution and accumulation on pages 47,48,51,52,53,55,56, 60,61, of "how to profit in commodities" this was because of the spreads heating oil unleaded crude not because of market action in the crude chart tthe spread was a tip off that the marjket would correct and it did the nest day 3 bucks next any questions on spreads? do you recommend spreads for a less experienced trader? did I bore you or put u to sleep? not at all n yes there are soe kevin deoends on what kind of risk but there are many behold the power of(not cheese)spreads ,.. : ) silver -gold is another spread Besides bonds & notes, meal & oil, can u suggest other pairs normally reflect bullishness? euro dollar spreads kevin for eaxmple -> did you see what i meant about selling grains? if they break out the bottom u get the advantage, bellies -hogs silver gold now as sal mentioend there are spreads with in cash and future months spreads in the same commodity? the same commodity well u cant trade cash jim chgo w vs mpls w? liapril hog-june hogs does silvers move up and gold flat suggest caution in gold yes davep -> of a volitility break out, same as comming out of accumulation or distribution, and if they don"t more sophisicated to everyone at this point but i willdiscuss in the future that is bullish generally steve silver will genrally lead gold -> u are not even out a commission. in most commodities thanks buying the front month or lead month and selling the second or beyond back month is a bull spread -> yes frank because the volume and price action is generally in the front month so if april hogs go up faster than june hogs this is generally bull spreading like crude? some commdities donrt have this bull spreading like gold silver curriencies to mane a few but meats grains di do sifts ect yes sal energies do this shows demand when the front month or lead moth avances relative to the second and beyond back months month I will go into detail on these more tomorrow you mentioned, gary, you are a conservative commodites trader. Do you prefer to use options in some situations? if you have questions please save them for tomorrow depends on volitilty kevein in some cases yes but ech case is differnt I never want to buy a commodity that is volitile with an option I see u pay too much for iy it Question..are we going to discuss the weekly corn tonite? but i will explian more tomorrow and in the coming weeks yes fibo now I blabbered to much great! -> Frank I'm tried and tried fo this discussion so I' ll say good night to and wish the best and I wanted amos to continue his discussions on the grains sorry for blabberring and monthly? and identifying the elephant I wanted to discuss grians and I will let amos have the mike amos if you please I was not going to discuss the corn or grains specifically tonite -> have to leave good night everyone I thought I would continue the general discussion of the concept of why large time frames views, but if you want to discuss a spcific chart Have to leave good night everyone like corn/fibo--we could do that nite Mr J nite nite mr j thanx User [mrj] left forum at Wed Mar 15 21:58:06 EST 2000 nite mrj vote for time frames the weekly corn now has a jump across the creek corn and beans if you dont mind y I prefer to discuss time frames -> the same with entry, my signal on 3-10 was sell bean oil at 1610, the bottom declined below 1608, weekly corn Is it bush or gore? jesse bush : ) corn bush gore is a bore This is the problem with this damn democracy, everyone has a vote Okay, I'll suck up. Whatever you think best, Amos If you open last nite chart 8--it is the only long term mom makes up our mind thru corn we have--monthly--we can talk about it for a momnet we said yesterday we would talk about how to make money with monthlies, weeklies,..... well, corn is more urgent than money right now, it seems -> on3-10, but by waiting for the top to cross 1608 and better prove the move, i did not get caught , -> on the wrong side of mondays grand rush oxymoron :-)? sorry amos you don't have to discuss it who are you calling oxy? -> sorry about that gen I am waiting for the group to decide.I am flexible money above all well Gary sent out 10 grain charts on Tues. and we were going to discuss them i thought corn is money to an old farmer I'm open, ..whatever I'll learn somthing either way principles above all loner term we need to understand longer tome frames . . . :) you can apply it to corn, beans..... HOw many of you did see my post about preparing a question for tonite? this is beginning to look like a teachers meeting and that is scary I do User [SteveF /209.214.192.159] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 22:05:28 EST 2000 i didn't I did, on what constitius a good trade not I amos, time is to short Yes, I posted this as a preparationfor tonite's class. I wanted to start that way--but as many good plans--there are curves in the road. I have already opened the monthly corn chart if you want to discuss it. u want to give us time to goread your post k No, I asked people to try and give an answer to the question: do the corn amos Good Trade: to enter in an area of "High Level of Knowledge". "What constitutes a "Good Trade?" a good trade follows my rules/paramenters (assuming they are well based) low risk hi profit nite all nite fibo nite fibo, wish you well User [fibo] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:08:26 EST 2000 high lok nite User [Lavona] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:09:00 EST 2000 OK, (I am sorry fibo is upset, apologize to her, Gary tmw) you gave good answers. They are: High LOK; Following the rules/principles and good risk reward ratio I like these answers. So, Now lets us try to collect the elements of HI LOK. Give me a few. ok, at support and resistance ? chart resistance and support all time frames consistent support & resistance levels, daily, wekly ,monthly Support/Resistnce clues from volume and price action time of last move monthly down trend has been broken -> rate of last move very good answers. rate of last move Now, step back for a moment and think. trend lines (You can even use the knowledge we gleaned tonite and spread your arms in a good ergonomic motion to alleviate tension) oooommmmmmm spread relationships? what is that makes all those elements coallesce? u chant sal? :) price & volume Wyckoff It is that when more of these elements coverge!! that we get a higher degree of knowledge. It is like making a business plan and making sure that the production plans and the finance plans and the marketing plans are all in line. all our ducks in a row ! The concept of convergence (which according to Wyckoff was an important part of the sifting and ranking process) is very important. If you agree with me on that--then it is a straight path to the concept of large timeframes. User [Lavona /207.50.1.131] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 22:15:30 EST 2000 convergence of what amos I will tell you the last line: If you can see a situation where you monthly, weekly and daily trends, support resistance; definitions (spring, jump, sign of strength etc etc etc.) converger--that is a point of high knowledge. That is the point where your chance of making money is the greatest. Now that we know the final goal--here starts the road to (How was the commercial for ABC sport the t thrill of victory and agony of defeats?) this is what we should now start to negotiate. not a sports fan So, now we have to start looking at these three time parameters and ask User [gary fullett /171.212.80.152] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 22:18:36 EST 2000 ourselves--what is going on in each one of them, are we getting correct data? is the chart reflecting correct pictures of supply and demand...I can name many questions. At this point I wanted to discuss the fact that if you do not have a good weekly and monthly chart--it is very hard to make a good POSITION trade decision. If you look at a weekly chart that does not update during the week--How do or any trade decision for that matter you know where and what are you doing? Look at most of the services--the free ones--the tfc, futuresource, bohl, you name it WHen you want to know where is corn, or cocoa on the weekly chart--you have to wait until saturday to find out where we are on that time frame. This is a very important issue. After all it takes very few lines of code for a computer program to add last nite data to the weekly Hi, Lo, Close file so that the information wuill be posted the next day on the weekly and monthly charts. Why do not they do it? I will tell you. )And if you think I am a paraoid--just remember that just because you are a paranoid, does not meant that nobody is out to get you) lol : ) The reason is--that this information is TOO IMPORTANT to give it to the public. I keep my own well WE'RE not :) YOU will never see a professional trader that does not have the BEST tools on his desk. we're here arn't we dave :) Heck Amos you cant post a weekly chart before the week is over In the same fashion that you will see the best mechanics around the track in INdy 500 (indeed Frank? where did you get this silly idea?) you will not see Isaac Perlman playing witnh less than a Stardivarius. You need the correct (good) tools in order to work well in this business. I am not griping here. when I starting drawing my own charts I am trying to tell you people that the information you get here is correct. And if you want to use this information in a productive manner--it is important belive you amos. to understand that in order to know where the hi LOK exist--you need a good pair of eyes. If we are lookin at the monthly chart--and I will remind you that each bar on the monthly chart represents SUPPLY and DEMAND for that month.. THe high is SUPPLY, the LOW is DEMAND--then you want to keep these parameters in front of youall the time. If the chart you are looking at is hiding this information from you you are trading half blind. Or as Rush Limbagh used to say with half your brain tied behind your back (to make things even for the competition) Am I ramblin too? keep going doing fine amos go The important point here is that in order to "create" a good trade--you need User [SteveF /209.214.193.180] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 22:29:59 EST 2000 a high level of knowledge That means you have to ORGANIZE your details. You must KNOW all the things you guys mentioned. In order to know where and what they are, you must have the right tools. A good long term chart--is important. I am saying that most vendors DO NOT give this out and I am saying that you mean a continuous chart for the chart services really be adiquit they would chart each contract weekly and monthly this is done puposely. (IT took me Years to believe in what I just said) If you want proofs--I will prove to you. But if you look at most of the services that are available to the public you will see that you either do not get the contination chart correct (big Issue), or you do not get the right volume, or you do not get the on line presentation of the large time frame chart, or you cannot get Point and Figure charts etc. What all this means is that in a rather vicious way--the world is stacked against us. The CM DOES not want us to have all the information he has. It is incmbent upon you (us) to overcome this vicious tendency and learn to read the charts correctly so that we can plan OUR business in such a way that we will have a better chance at mak\ing money. not unreasonable at all amos The first step in solving or curing any problem is Identifying the problem ! y I can go on and on, but I want to pause3 and get some feedback ? i use Genesis.... month, week, and daily.. I belive it. what kind of feedback u want? I use Exodos how do I know if my continuous, mo'ly and weeklies are not good? how do we know if we've got the right ones/ is pushing different buttons is that all right? Pinnacle is good These are good answers. some of us will have to do the best we can with poor quote vendors for now How do we go about to get correct data? If you are asking yourself, checking yourself whether you data collection is good you are already in a good camp. I do not have the answers, I just want to make it sure that you understand that yrs in order to use Wyckoff correctly--we must have the correct parameters of supply and demand. yes I understand you point Give you an example. If we are talking about a trading range, say beans and we say that there is a small range between 500 and 540. Is that trading range also on the weekly and monthly? Well, first of all the monthly is still March and we are looking at May. tes but not at exact same prices In a month and a half we will be looking at July daily whil the weekly and monthly will be still looking at may--how do you account for this? User [gary fullett /171.212.80.152] joined forum at Wed Mar 15 22:39:00 EST 2000 i haven't been able to find affordable (?) chart that offers both intr-day and long term, neither am I sure I have good data, I AM sure it doesn't go back far enough I find the support/resistance point on weekly then look @ current month & correlate it to that week. If we see a resistanc point on the weekly chart-- is it acorrect resistance point? You must always ask yourself if you are looking at the correct point. with prices of that week It is not always easy. One of the reasons I keep lookin at cash is because cash depends entirely on how weekly chart was calibrated is continuous. I do not think it is exactly correct amos You see, Wyckoff never had this problem with stocks (except with splits!) and you have to adopt the commodites business to the Wyckoff paradigm You will, hopefully, get here the best answers to these questions.But first you must be aware of the problems. BTW, in gereral, We may adopt this means of communication via the post board, so make it a habit to glance at it once a day and see if there is a question, assignment, plea so that, if you have time, before next calss-- you can do something. It can only help you. Hopefully, these calsses will get more and more organized (we are going thru a learning curve and it ok time is a problem amos is rather shallow at this point) and as we get more organized amos, you've said to use 60 minute signals, yet Gary has suggested you're a position trader, therefore you've found a way around all these chart/data problems we wil l have to communicate more.You are telling me Frank? that is all we are talking about time time time Gary does not knowme so well, apparently I am talking about principles. If you want to enter intraday--then 60 minutes entry siganl is fine. hope i'm not putting words in his mouth :) I just want to sum up todays idea: If you want a good trade, if you look at your trade (each and every one of them) as a business my point was you've foud a way to deal with the entire spectrum, trading on 60 minute sigams with yearly perspective propostion, adventure--then you want to strive for a good level of knowledge. evenings get very crowded for me amos, the days are pretty open though, unless there is an emergency One of the most important things to do is to collect the information in anorganized manner. We have touched here upon the issue of combining time-frames to find a point of convergence. I su\ggested that going form the Macro to the Micro is a better way to sift thru murky situations. Next time we should talk about concatenations. macro? micro? i am Dan done next time is when? MOnthly to daily is macro to micro, Frank yes the contract and time associated with commodities but not stocks is important too tomorrow at 8pmcst what is a macro and micro? any questions ? thanks amos Shwarzeneger and Danny Devito yeah, but I'll call you tomorrow with them macro is larger than a micro good discussion ,,,, thanks. Frank, go from the BIG picture to the small picture good talk amos. Organizing data is a feat in itself. I've been re-organizing a lot lately, trying & getting better @ it. or from the MONTHLIES to the weeklies to the dailies, then minutes hurray for you lamarsh hurray when I get it right : ) Please, do not think that I scoff at those people who make fortunes using the 1 min chart-- and I KNOW a few thanks peggy macro/micro is one extreme to other, like Amos' knowlege vs mine! :) :) amos thank you great discussion tonight ok thanks again, Amos hey I trade 1 minute charts thank you for your time this evening, Amos yes goog stuff Amos it is morning for amos peggy thank you amos :) go to bed, then good :) amos is going to have breakfast now see you tomorrow. gn, good nite all right amos? budwiser? rt hmmmmm I dont drink ;) well I will see u all tomorrow night then same bat time same bat station me neighther me either Thanks everone,...I'll see ya tomorrow & good luck all gn all good nite thanks all User [amos] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:52:55 EST 2000 good night lmarsh User [Frank] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:52:58 EST 2000 see ya'll tomorrow User [lmarsh] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:53:08 EST 2000 questions befoe I leave eric robin and all ois this helping u am I still here yes yeah, a question, gary please.. yes, gary thanks great eric how threw out a whole pile manure. email me orcall if u do have questions How do I know if my quotes are correct. what do u mean oeggy if the quotes are right verify with the exchanges that was his big thing at the end here, the accuracy of the quotes the public is given I have traded on the floor and I have charted fom the boards on the floor and I dont find them different did I interpret him incorrectly, then? I think that if you chart from a vendor or from the wal stret journal or form the boards they are the same u did that is his opinion k I dont necessarily agree with him peggy, one way, plot on chart & have mostly contiguous prices; other ? has to do with distortions from the manner in which continuous chart was "concatenated." I will not stear u wrong call me or email and I will give u the info k well I wish everyone a great night..... Talk to you tomorrow. Good nite. see you all tomorrow thank u User [Peggy] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:57:24 EST 2000 gn gary thanks sweet dreams all User [sal] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:57:36 EST 2000 thanks Gary, good night night gn to all User [gary fullett] left forum at Wed Mar 15 22:57:43 EST 2000