User [gary fullett /171.217.83.35] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:01:34 EST 2000
<davep> hi everyone -- sorry, inerrupted by phone call asi logged on<Enter Text Here>
<Peggy> evening, Gary
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
User [SteveF /209.214.197.131] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:02:00 EST 2000
User [amos /62.0.147.169] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:02:02 EST 2000
<gary fullett> Did everyone recieve charts today
<sal> y
<gary fullett> welcome Kim
<Kim> Hi and yes
<davep> y, hi
<SteveF> Hello all..yes
<gary fullett> Kim amos has been studying wyckoff for 22 yrs
<Peggy> y
User [fibo /204.119.225.122] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:02:51 EST 2000
<gary fullett> and I have been following wyckoff for the past 19
<mrj> hi fibo
User [vik /204.50.171.79] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:03:09 EST 2000
<gary fullett> so you are in good hands
<fibo> hello everyone
<Kim> 
<gary fullett> tonight we disuss 
<Peggy> hi, Fibo
<sal> hi fibo, thanks for post bout option prices
<gary fullett> charts and the rest of the week go over principles
<davep> hi, fibo
<gary fullett> and charts
<fibo> your welcome sal
<gary fullett> before I begin
<gary fullett> any questions about markets
<gary fullett> wyckoff style
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> I have sent mostly grains charts
<gary fullett> tonight I will be sending other charts tomorrow
<gary fullett> but since we have focused on the grains for the past 2 weeks
<gary fullett> and have identified accumulation
<gary fullett> I wanted to send weeklies and monthlies of corn and beans
<gary fullett> but before I get into the grains with amos
<gary fullett> I wanted to go over a chart about copper
<gary fullett> look at the low last October
<gary fullett> it appeared to be climatic in nature
<gary fullett> I will be getting volume for back data soon
<gary fullett> to send
<davep> april?
<gary fullett> May Copper
User [Lavona /207.50.1.177] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:06:55 EST 2000
<fibo> hello Lavona
<gary fullett> hi Lavona
<Peggy> hi, Lavona
<gary fullett> the next rally was an automatic rally
<gary fullett> if the sell off in october was the selling climax
<gary fullett> the market went sideways
<gary fullett> for a month
<gary fullett> forming a trading range
<gary fullett> between the 78 cent area
<Lavona> Hi everyone
<gary fullett> and the 8350 area
<gary fullett> do you see this?
<sal> y
<SteveF> y
<Peggy> y
<Kim> y
<gary fullett> then within this range
<gary fullett> the market then made a smaller range
<vik> y
<gary fullett> from late November thru mid December
<gary fullett> we have devloped a creek area at the 8300 area
<gary fullett> when we are in a trading range
<gary fullett> and we are about to break out what does the market typically do?
<gary fullett> Jump over the creek right?
<gary fullett> in this case the market gapped and jump over the creek ( not ideally)
<gary fullett> when the market was at the 8150
<gary fullett> area
<gary fullett> in the middle of its trading
<gary fullett> range
<gary fullett> it was if th amrket couldnt wait any longer
<gary fullett> market
<gary fullett> do you see this gap?
<SteveF> yes
<Kim> y
<Peggy> y
<fibo> y
<sal> y
<vik> y
<amos> 
<gary fullett> a jump over the creek typically happens
<gary fullett> at the top of the range
<gary fullett> not while in the middle of it
<gary fullett> not all wyckoff is classical
<gary fullett> but the point that I want to make is that the market action and behavior
<gary fullett> is very important
<gary fullett> this gap or jump
<gary fullett> shows what?
<fibo> demand
<davep> 
<SteveF> strength
<Peggy> accumulation
User [frank /207.230.57.117] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:13:50 EST 2000
<fibo> hi Frank
<gary fullett> the trading range show accumaultion Pggy
<Lavona> hi Frank
<Peggy> k
<gary fullett> the gap shows strenghth
<mrj> hey framk
<gary fullett> right steve
<gary fullett> so this action clearly can be seen as strenghth
<gary fullett> agree?
<fibo> y
<frank> hi everyone, anyone get rich today?
<sal> y
<Kim> y
<fibo> :-)
<mrj> :)
<Peggy> :(
<gary fullett> well Frank if you would have followed our chat for the past 2 weeks you would have been long grains
<gary fullett> so this gap 
<gary fullett> at the creek area
<gary fullett> will show support on the retest
<gary fullett> if you would have bought this gap
<gary fullett> you could have placed your stop within the creek
<gary fullett> and never would have been at a loss
User [lmarsh /12.14.197.191] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:16:36 EST 2000
<Peggy> Q please
<fibo> hi lmarsh
<gary fullett> so this gap area
<lmarsh> sorry late, Hello fibo, everyone
<gary fullett> is Now support after being resisatnce
<gary fullett> do you see this?
<Lavona> Hi Imarsh
<mrj> hi marsh
<Kim> y
<fibo> y
<davep> hi lmarsh
<Peggy> are gaps indicative of market direction?
<lmarsh> what chart are we on?
<fibo> copper
<gary fullett> the market did rally from the creek
<lmarsh> thanks
<gary fullett> if one wanted to get long and missed buying at the creek area
User [Name already in use /204.50.171.75] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:18:05 EST 2000
<gary fullett> where would be the safest time to buy?
<gary fullett> copper
<gary fullett> may
<fibo> pull back to the creek
<Peggy> on a pullback?
<gary fullett> on the retest of the creek
<SteveF> retest
<gary fullett> right fibo
<gary fullett> you type faster than i :)
User [jim /171.217.4.224] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:18:54 EST 2000
<gary fullett> if you bought the retest
<jim> hi, all.
<fibo> hi jim
<gary fullett> hi jim
<Peggy> hi, Jim
<davep> hi jim
<jim> hi.
<gary fullett> the stop would have been at the creek area
<Lavona> hi
<gary fullett> but if you bought the market in early February
<Peggy> but it never made it back to the creek until much later
<gary fullett> the key level that the market
<gary fullett> Feb Peggy
<Peggy> so would a pullback suffice
User [Name already in use] left forum at Tue Mar 14 21:20:11 EST 2000
<gary fullett> the rally need to take out the high
<gary fullett> made in late Jan
User [vik /204.50.171.75] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:20:30 EST 2000
<Peggy> k
<gary fullett> for a retest of the high
<gary fullett> at the 8650 area
<gary fullett> it didnt 
<gary fullett> this would been a warning that the market may have been in trouble
User [eric /206.98.11.172] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:21:17 EST 2000
<gary fullett> but the point that I wanted to make
<gary fullett> is that if you bought the retest
<gary fullett> again you were immediatly profitable
<gary fullett> and would have eventaully got stopped out
<eric> <Enter Text Here>good evening to all
<Lavona> hi Eric
<Peggy> hi, Eric
<gary fullett> but the principle to buy the marjket at that point would have been the right trade
<fibo> hi eric
<gary fullett> not all right trades make money
<gary fullett> and that is why one must use stops
<gary fullett> hi eric
<gary fullett> look what happened when the market
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> retest ed the creek
<gary fullett> in mid Feb
<gary fullett> look at the close?
<gary fullett> it closed right on the creek area
<gary fullett> which originally was resistance
User [sherri /209.100.190.147] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:23:26 EST 2000
<gary fullett> now support
<fibo> hi sherri
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> welcome sherri
<sal> 
<sherri> hi everyone
<Peggy> hi, Sherri
<gary fullett> remeber resisatnce becomes support
<gary fullett> and vice versa
<gary fullett> so this upport at the creek
<Kim> Why wouldn't you have looked to buy on the first pullback 12/20-ish (depending on volume of course)
<gary fullett> must be watched
<Peggy> yeah, that was my Q
<gary fullett> if you were keen enough
<gary fullett> you could have
<Lavona> hi
<gary fullett> it was a quick retest
<gary fullett> I would have waited for the creek area
<eric> which chart please?
<amos> 
<gary fullett> in hindsight yes
<fibo> copper
<mrj> copper
<gary fullett> but at that point I would have thought
<eric> thx
<gary fullett> the market would have tested the creek area
<gary fullett> good question
<gary fullett> if you could have bought that quick retest great
<gary fullett> so the retest of the creek was questionable
<vik> many times on intraday there is no retest?
<gary fullett> at 8300
<vik> what then?
<gary fullett> because of the weak reaction back in early feb
<gary fullett> depends vik
<vik> would miss some of the best ones
<gary fullett> market was strong after it jumped over the creek in Mid December
<gary fullett> true
<sal> 
<gary fullett> Vik I have missed more than I caught
<gary fullett> nature of the beast
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> this creek was suspect because of the weak Feb rally
<gary fullett> and then the market broke thru the ice
<gary fullett> late Feb see this?
<gary fullett> and then the market went and retested
<Kim> y
<SteveF> y
<gary fullett> the lows made back in October
<gary fullett> so this market is now formed a large trading range from thr 7800
<gary fullett> area
<gary fullett> support
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> to probably 8700 area
<gary fullett> markets always retest
<gary fullett> demand and supply constantly
<gary fullett> it is the way that the CM measures
<gary fullett> the buying and selling around him
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> th cm may buy 100 contracts and sell 75 within a day to test th amrkets abilty
<gary fullett> the cm is the composite man
<gary fullett> does veryone know who that is?
<sal> 
<Peggy> y
<Peggy> see glossary
<Kim> no
<gary fullett> the composite man is a wyckoff term
<vik> carl morgan
<gary fullett> that incoprates the thought of the greatest minds of the markets
<gary fullett> like George Soros
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> Cargils
<gary fullett> Tudor jones
<gary fullett> ect. the people in the know
<gary fullett> wyckoff used them
<davep> 
<gary fullett> as his indicator of smart money
<gary fullett> wyckoff NEVER watched the news
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> he was a tape reader
<gary fullett> and watched the actions of these CM
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> One must never watch the "news" while trading wyckoff principles
<Lavona> 
<gary fullett> the CM will interpert the news for u but his actions
<gary fullett> watch the market price action and volume
<gary fullett> there is aglossary on the website for terminogly Kim
<Kim> thanx
<eric> 
<gary fullett> My pleasure I thought u may not known about the CM
<mrj>-><frank> Frank how you doing tonight?
<gary fullett> so I wanted to give a backround
<Kim> I think I now remember the term in his book
<gary fullett> that is good for everyone
<gary fullett> important to understand his/her role
<gary fullett> questions on copper/
<gary fullett> 
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> Grains:
User [frank /207.230.57.117] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:35:23 EST 2000
<sal> 
<SteveF> 
<davep> if you'd bot the jump, where wud u have exited . . . 8750 ish?
<gary fullett> what did you think of the action today?
<SteveF> up
<gary fullett> yes under the high made in early jan davep
<frank>-><mrj> breakfast was bad, and the rest of the day was not much improvement.
<gary fullett> I know it was up
<lmarsh> mellow to Monday
<gary fullett> but was it bullish?
<gary fullett> bearish price actioon?
<frank>-><mrj> dehorned and docked today
<mrj>-><frank> do any good in markets?
<SteveF> beans wheat yes bullish?
<gary fullett> I watch spreads on markets very closely
<frank>-><mrj> and soy oil did not go my way
<gary fullett> strenghth and weakness of markets
<mrj>-><frank> you were short?
<gary fullett> and yesterday soymeal
<gary fullett> was the strongest
<gary fullett> and it is one of the strongest grain
<amos> 
<gary fullett> so this to me was bullish spreading
<gary fullett> when soymeal outpaces soy oil
<gary fullett> generally this will lead to a rally
<gary fullett> long meal short oil spread
<gary fullett> is consider bullish
<vik> 
<gary fullett> today that spread was opoosite
<frank>-><mrj> spilled a whole box of cerial. how about u?
<gary fullett> thought the action was bullish
<gary fullett> and the market went to new monthly high
<mrj>-><frank> corn and oats doing good :)
<gary fullett> this meal- oil spead 
<gary fullett> is a warning to me
<frank> good for u
<gary fullett> this is just my observation
<mrj>-><frank> thanks frank
User [jim /171.217.4.224] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:39:35 EST 2000
<gary fullett> questiosn on what I have discuss so far ronight?
<mrj> 
<sherri> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> tonight
<Kim> 
<Lavona> 
<eric> 
<amos> 
<lmarsh> how is the spread at this time a warning?
<sal> 
<SteveF> was your last point to be cautious
<gary fullett> tmorrow I will be going over xome wyckoff prnciples
<gary fullett> but since grains
<gary fullett> were moving I wanted to devote lots of time to that tonight
<gary fullett> as I mentioed last night
<Lavona> great!
<fibo> k
<gary fullett> yes steve
<gary fullett> I am longer term bullish
<lmarsh> good
<gary fullett> I sent monthly and wekly charts of corn and beans
<gary fullett> as I promised i would from last night
<fibo> Gary did you have indegestion last night? ":-)
<Peggy> you missed lmarsh's Q back there, Gary
<gary fullett> I would like amos to continue the discussion on the grains
<gary fullett> I am sorry what was the question
<gary fullett> i didnt see it
<gary fullett> I see it
<lmarsh> nevermind Peg, I see what he was taliking about, bean oil went ballistic today
<Peggy> how is the spread a warning
<Peggy> I don't
<gary fullett> when meal doesnt preform as well on a rally relative to oil
<gary fullett> this means the unwinding of bull spreads
<gary fullett> this doesnt mean the market is bearish
<gary fullett> but a caution
<gary fullett> to be careful of a pullback
<gary fullett> and to get ready to buy the support
<Peggy> k
<gary fullett> may beans ideally would retest the 516-520 for example
<gary fullett> corn at the 228 level in may
<gary fullett> amos can you talk about grains here monthlu and weekly?
<amos> well, I prepared a full "class" for tonite about weekly and
<amos> monthly charts--I even wrote a "syllabus"
<amos> but I am afraid that most people are alrady
<amos> tired by now?
<fibo> i'm not
<gary fullett> I am sorry amos
<jim> n
<eric> noway
<amos> 3/16
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> we are interested in your thoughts
<SteveF> yes please
<davep> yeah, let's go
<lmarsh> yes
<Lavona> please!
<amos> I usually can tell attention span and perception
<amos> by looking into eyes. It is hard for me
<amos> to see your eyes from such a distance, so 
<sal> z
<amos> please when you have a question
<SteveF> @i@
<amos> pleaseeeeee interrupt me ok?
<jim> k
<lmarsh> ok
<davep> k
<mrj>-><lmarsh> 
<Lavona> k
<amos> A chart, a bar on a chart is a synopsis of that
<vik> 
<mrj> 
<fibo> 
<amos> particular timeframe battle of supply and demand.
<amos> The high of the bar is SUPPLTY
<amos> the Low of the bar is DEMAND and the close is a temporary balance.
<amos> If we do not agree on this premise--the whole point is moot.
<frank>-><mrj> since meal, oil and wheat are all banging on near resistance looks like a bear flag for a short term trade
<amos> DOes any one disagree on this point?
<SteveF> I agree
<amos> So, when we switch from one time frame
<eric> no
<Lavona> so far
<Peggy> no
<sherri> 
<amos> to another--we are simply looking at different degrees of battle.
<amos> We move from the aircraft carrier to command post to chief of staff.
<amos> Each time fram e has its own CM's
<amos> I will repeat: each time frame has different forces that present theri
<amos> forces of suupply and demand to the battle.
<amos> Wyckoff said it in the following form:
<sal> 
<davep> 
<Kim> 
<amos> He said: each movement of market has at least 3 types of players involved
<lmarsh> 
<amos> The longterm player would ignore the daily and weekly reactions
<fibo> 
<Peggy> 
<amos> (if he is long); The swing player will go short for the weekly reaction
<mrj>-><frank> Frank I'm not too much into flags and other patterns so can't judge markets that way
<amos> and the short term player will play both sides as if there is NO long term
<amos> trend.
<amos> I will say somethign rather purturbing:
<amos> If you mix timeframes--you will NOT make large amount of money in the market!
<amos> Question?
<Lavona> 
<gary fullett> can I nterject somehting amos?
<lmarsh> what about timing an entry/exit
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> please remeber trading is a matter of risk to reward
<gary fullett> if you are using a monthly time frame'
User [amos] left forum at Tue Mar 14 21:53:21 EST 2000
<sal> 
<gary fullett> your stop is larger but the reward is larger
<frank> amos can u use the range from different time frames to pyramid?
User [amos /62.0.147.169] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 21:53:43 EST 2000
<amos> I got bumped off at the rime Gary was interjecting
<amos> Gary please repeat
<lmarsh> wb
<gary fullett> so if your risk to reward falls under a 3 to 1 risk to reward
<gary fullett> be carefu
<davep> 
<gary fullett> amos I mentioned
<gary fullett> that the risk to reward must always be kept in mind
<gary fullett> if you trade longer term ala monthly
<amos> I am not sure how this ties into this?
<gary fullett> you have a larher risk but a larger reward
<sherri> 
<SteveF> 
<Peggy> 
<amos> Gary, I am talking on a theoretical level now
<gary fullett> larger
<amos> the details of how the trader relates to all this is a much later issue
<gary fullett> okay I apologize please comntinue
<frank> amos cant u use a forty day trend range to pyramid if a high or olw is broken?
<gary fullett> I will shut up
<gary fullett> :)
<amos> The point that different timeframes involve different CM's is very
<vik> if ur trading 30 minute isnt good to look at daily for trend
<amos> important to understand. It
<amos> If you are trading the short term time frame then your
<amos> paradigms of interpretting according to Wyckoff will be
<amos> very different from another timeframe
<jim> is is not the daily, weekly, monthly charts are the same data plotted differenctly?
<amos> What you see as a buying climax on a 60 minutes bar
<jim> why then different cm?
<amos> can be but an insignificant blipp ono the daily chart and certainly
<amos> meanfless noise on the weekly.
<sal> 
<amos> NO, Jim , this is the essence of this discussiono.
<sherri> 
<davep> 
<Lavona> 
<Peggy> 
<SteveF> 
<lmarsh> 
<amos> Now. We must listen to all three timeframes. But
<frank> 
<Kim> 
<fibo> 
<amos> like the 6 blind men and the elephant--the big question is
<eric> 
<amos> do we want to identify the trunk as a pipe? the leg as a pillar?
<amos> the tail as a rope? or do we want to identify the elephant?
<sherri> ;-)
<amos> Well. there is no simple answer.
<amos> vik could not care less about the elephant. If he is happy of making money
<amos> off the elephant by using his trunk--- that is OK.
<jim> so you must ask very first ... are you a position trader, swing trader, or short term tradier...
<davep> we want to see the pachyderm
<jim> or a day traer.
<amos> 
<amos> Yes.
<amos> I hope that poeple here will be able to identify
<sal> 
<amos> withing themselves--when they decide on enterign
<amos> the business of putting a trade--this question
<frank> ever trend has its own timeframe, and when a trend breaks its time frame the trend is indicated as changing
<amos> What kind of an elephant observer am I?
<amos> 
<mrj> elephant
<amos> Now, everytime frame has its OWN GEOMETRY.
<sal> 
<sherri> 
<lmarsh> keen
<Peggy> 
<amos> What do I mean by geometry? anyone wants to guess?
<frank> Scott Warner
<davep> support and resistance lines
<vik> look of action on the chart
<SteveF> range
<amos> dave's answer is the best.
<amos> It is those clear points of support and resistance that we can identify.
<amos> Here is another purturbing point:
<amos> If the CM was not using those points--They would not have worked!!!!
<amos> Those points of turning on th e charts are not created becuase you and
<amos> I are bying our 1 or 5 lots. They are created because all of a sudden at 
<davep> his deep pockets make 'em a self-fulfilling, etc.
<sal> 
<Kim> 
<Peggy> 
<fibo> 
<amos> a certain point on the chart--on the floor, or somewhere an infinite abount of supply or
<amos> demand appears in the hand of the floor trader, and soon everyone realizes that
<amos> this is IT. This is a point of support an d resistance.
<amos> Did it ever bother, or suprise any of you why is it that trendlines work
<amos> so well in hindsight?
<lmarsh> yes
<Lavona> 
<amos> Please open for a moment chart # 9 from
<amos> tonites batch.
<gary fullett> which chart amos
<sal> 
<amos> 9
<jim> monthly beans
<lmarsh> monthly bean
<amos> Gary did not draw a downtrenlin, but if you take a
<gary fullett> just anted everyne to be on the same wave
<amos> transparent ruler you can see that the last high at 6 dollars sat
<gary fullett> No I didnt mark it do u can illistrate
<amos> EXACTLY on the monthly downtrendline.
<amos> Here we had a that time (about a year and a half ago) what
<amos> one (including me) might think a classical spring of 13 year
<amos> support on the monthly chart and the beginning of a grand rally
<sherri> 
<amos> and the CM (THE MONTHLY CM) stood at that trendline and sold all you wanted.
<amos> That cause another 1-12/ buck drop in the price of beans.
<amos> Today we say: Of course, that was obvious.
<amos> Obvious my ass!!!!
<lmarsh> :)
<vik> 
<amos> it was only obious to the CM at that time.
<Peggy> 
<amos> The same trendline was broken a few months ago--and we are still 
<amos> in a large trading range below the low of 92.
<davep> 
<amos> Ok. Back to theory.
<gary fullett> obvious my ass does he trade?
<gary fullett> :)
<amos> Isn't it amazing what turns Gary's attention?
<SteveF> lol
<mrj> lol
<lmarsh> lol
<gary fullett> I have seen you a... 
<jim> :)
<Peggy> :)
<eric> 
<gary fullett> and it is obvious :)
<amos> So, if that "geometry" is the Atlas, the roadmap of the CM
<sal> dont send a chart of that gary !
<gary fullett> NO WAY!!!!!
<amos> the big question is on what timeframes is he concentrating?
<amos> I shall repeat ( I am working here while you are goasting)
<amos> joasting that was.
<amos> The sad fact is that we NEVER know on what time frame He is concentrating at
<amos> the particular time.
<amos> If he is more interested in the long term--that mean that he is interested in a monthly
<amos> range--then all moves between the major monthly support and resistance
<amos> will be RANDOM!!
<amos> If he is interested in a markup then all counter trend moves will be RANDOM
<amos> What is Random walk theory?
<amos> answer please
<lmarsh> don't know
<davep> over the LONG term prices not predictable
<Lavona> ??
<jim> buy or sell by flip coins
<eric> You will walk back to the original place after random steps
<amos> good answers.
<SteveF> that markets are not predictable
<Peggy> and the winner is???
<amos> From Wyckoff point of vioew, random walk theory
<amos> implies that KNOWLEDGE is distributed evenly among all
<amos> makret participants.
<amos> From your short stay here, alone, you can tell that each one of us
<amos> possesses a different degree of knowledge and FOR SURE
<amos> we do not know as much as the CM.
<amos> So, What I am trying to say is that one of the hardest things for a trader
<mrj> 
<Kim> 
<amos> to do is to decipher -- which is the time frame that the CM is paying
<amos> more attention to.
<frank>-><mrj> 
<amos> Now you would say, wait a minute-- you just
<sherri> 
<amos> said that there are several CMs.
<amos> Yes.
<sal> 
<Peggy> 
<fibo> 
<amos> But at each phase of the market--that "CM" (which we can NEVER know who he is)
<amos> that is in control--will prevail.
<amos> If we look at this chart 9 we see that since 97 the
<amos> supply was in control.
<amos> In the last year--demand started to appear and the market stopped
<amos> going down.
<davep> 
<vik> 
<amos> We are hopping here that we are identifying a large scale accumulation
<amos> by the long term forces of the market and that the next big move
<amos> will be to the upside.
<amos> We have some signs ono the monthly chart that demand is beginning
<amos> to assert itself--by the fact that we have made a higher high on the monthly chart.
<amos> But we awls know that the $6.00 is the last creek.
<lmarsh> 
<frank> it aint broken 556.5 yet so how u know it has stopped going down amos?
<amos> We can sit and discuss this monthly chart for hours and days...
<amos> when I said a few weeks ago that I have to "study" a chart--some of you
<amos> asked me"what do I mean by studying a chart"
<gary fullett> does anyone have any questions so far?
<amos> Now you can see that what I mean is trying to detect which time frame
<amos> is in control at each phase of the market.
<amos> If we are in the last few weeks in a range
<amos> between 538.5 and 500 in May beans
<amos> what does it mean?
<SteveF> accumulation
<amos> what is 556.5 Frank?
<fibo> shorter term time frames in control
<lmarsh> yes accumulation / range
<frank> the Jan hi of 1999
<lmarsh> I like fibo's answer
<amos> and why is 1/99 important?
<SteveF> downtrend stopped
<vik> suppy for last yr
<vik> top pf year bar
<amos> OK, I am not surer, I cannot see
<jim> jump over the creek on the daily chart
<amos> it from chart # 9 of tonite.
<fibo> it made a lower low
<frank> if 401 is the 99 low then to properly show a uptrend in 2000 you need see a move over the 99 hi
<amos> You have noticed that both Gary and I are somewhat bullish.
<amos> I can tell you that the only reason I am bullish is because the
<amos> Monthly chart is showing signs of tutning up.
<amos> I have no idea if we are going to "fly" out of here and all the talk of drought
<amos> bothers the hell out of me.
<amos> But I know that in order
<amos> for the chart to continue to be bullish-0-certain
<Peggy> Even though different time frames have different CM's, is there any correlation to weekly, daily?
<amos> support points must hold.
<amos> BTW this answer of 1/99 being to find grace in my eyes--this
<amos> is like looking at the YEARLY chart and waiting for a thrust
<amos> on the yearly----veery good!!!!
<amos> The major point to glean from all this trivia is this:
<amos> If you want to get a good picture of a state of a market,
<amos> the state of supply and demand.... I found that is better to start with the
<amos> elephant.
<amos> If you start with the macro, the monthly--then go to the weekly and then
<lmarsh> aka / monthly?
<sherri> 
<amos> sdown to the daily--you get the "MAP OF THE CAT" as Feinmann used to call it
<eric> 
<amos> And the geometry is clearer.
<amos> If we break above 539 then we know that 556 is the next resistance.
<frank> If they dont start shoveling out the elevators we are only looking at an upthrust in grains
<amos> Nothing is better for a trader than to know where is the next point of support/resiitance
<amos> Frank, you just destroyed you beautiful 1/99 ovservation
<amos> You will know about the shoveling of all kind of stuff from the chart!!!!
<sal> better frank than me :)
<amos> Do you want me to continue, or is it enough for tonite?
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> continue
<lmarsh> I like it amos
<fibo> go on
<gary fullett> does anyone have ant quesitions first?
<Peggy> if you feel up to it, please continue
<jim> go
<eric> continue please
<gary fullett> is everyone following amoses thoughts?
<frank> as long as they insist on keeping the dollar strong for the good of the economy, the demand for our grains will be poor
<Lavona> 
<Kim> 
<gary fullett> that isnt wyckoff frank
<gary fullett> watch market action
<Lavona> Frank do you remember the Russian wheat deal??
<frank> y
<Peggy> y
<mrj> 
<eric> 
<amos> I heard Putin is selling puts
<Lavona> We know the future by our charts the Pres want call
<sal> they sent it to wrong port :)
<Lavona> :)
<jim> sorry.... who is Putin?
<amos> At any rate, I wil continue for a short while
<fibo> k
<davep> main man in Moscow
<amos> Putin is the son of Rusputin
<Lavona> k
<SteveF> Putin is president of russia
<sherri> pres of Russia
<frank> Lavona government deals are urinating into the wind, as far as prices are concerned.not demand.
<amos> So if we see a range on the daily chart--and we are tempted
<amos> to think immediately in terms of ice and creeks and jumps and trampolines
<gary fullett> King Rutintutin
<Lavona> Frank study your charts
<sal> that 's not a pretty picture frank
<amos> ---and then we look at the monthly chart and see that it is nothing but
<gary fullett> lol :) sal
<gary fullett> and his wife Hotsie totsie
<jim> forget about the triangle on the daily?
<gary fullett> believe me charts will tell you the fundamantals
<amos> noise in a small reaction or rally 
<davep> ok to skip weekly?
<amos> You see ? I ask about continuation and get urinated all over the place
<sherri> 
<lmarsh> No dave
<gary fullett> :)
<Peggy> LOL --- we're waking up after Gary
<gary fullett> snore snore
<Peggy> :)
<amos> I think, we should stop here and take it up next time--becuase
<amos> now come the practical aspects of all this theory--how do you make
<sal> yep slap happy means tired
<amos> money with all this--and better leave it to another day.
<gary fullett> can we pick this up tomorrow amos?
<frank>-><mrj> a bear flag,
<amos> yea
<SteveF> what were you saying about attention span.. :) 
<Lavona> Great lesson Amos
<Peggy> please please please please
<gary fullett> amos thank you
<frank>-><mrj> is three days
<gary fullett> clap clap
<sherri> thank you gary and amos
<amos> y welcome
<Peggy> Amos, how about some homework on the subject?
<gary fullett> I think tonights discuss ion was very good any questions
<amos> yes Peggy write Monthly Weekly Daily 150 times
<gary fullett> any charts that anyone wants us to discuss?
<gary fullett> Lol
<gary fullett> :)
<Peggy> I'm excused that day!!!
<gary fullett> amos almost time for breakfast
<frank>-><mrj> of higher highs and higher lows consecutively
<gary fullett> you have to ask sal for that Peggy
<amos> y
<Lavona> Night all
<fibo> thanks amos
<fibo> nite Lavona
<gary fullett> good morning to amos lavona
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<Kim> thanks and goodnight all
<amos> look at the monthly copper and try to figure out how what Gary said tonite fits?
<sherri> nite lavona
<Peggy> Q gary on Weekly beans
<gary fullett> kim thank you
<sal> is there a wyckoff term for action in sugar today?
<gary fullett> I hoped it helped and u will join us again
<SteveF> sos
<fibo> nite Kim
<amos> salt, sal
<Peggy> nite Kim
<sherri> nite everyone
<gary fullett> the market went into ice sal
<fibo> nite sherri
<jim> thanks. gn.
<gary fullett> and went to support
<frank>-><mrj> put a sell stop under the last higher high and if it continues up u are not touched, so u dont loose money or commission
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<gary fullett> okay peggy
<gary fullett> question
<Peggy> on the weekly beans, you write
<mrj>-><frank> will look at it Frank thanks
<Peggy> preliminary support on the downward
User [amos] left forum at Tue Mar 14 22:43:39 EST 2000
<Peggy> aren't there many preliminary supports in a downward market?
<frank>-><mrj> if it goes down you are filled,
<gary fullett> yes there are
<gary fullett> but when you changing the trend
<gary fullett> the major on is the most critical on
<Peggy> well, I retracte that slightly, they must have volume to accompany them
<gary fullett> ps happens intraday
<gary fullett> daily 
<davep> 
<frank>-><mrj> and follow it with a tight stop loss
<gary fullett> weekly and monthly
<gary fullett> when it happens at the end of a move it is the most important one
<gary fullett> yes correct.....
<frank>-><mrj> onecent 20 points or so
<Peggy> k
<gary fullett> I think amos has added alot to our class
<mrj>-><frank> I'll read the log and write down what you have said 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> how do you like his anlayisis
<Peggy> yes, it was great. 
<Peggy> Stretching, but understandable
<frank>-><mrj> and if it starts to move against u if it is in fact an uptrend
<gary fullett> I hink sometimes he races ahead of class but slow him don
<mrj>-><lmarsh> larry did you get into wheat?
<SteveF> yes for the finer points of Wyckoff Amos is very helpful
<gary fullett> down
<gary fullett> he is knowledable but talks in thoery more than me
<lmarsh>-><mrj> no, you?
<gary fullett> I trade from floor experiences
<gary fullett> yes steve
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<gary fullett> but everyone must know
<Peggy> sometimes he is above me, but I go back and reread it a time or two and it makes sense
<gary fullett> the basics first to undersatnd
<sal> why cant someone be a whort term and long term trader?
<mrj>-><lmarsh> no I'm in corn and oats wish I would have :)
<sal> short
<gary fullett> very good peg
<lmarsh> computer froze for a while.......
<gary fullett> I try to keep it simple he speeds up :)
<gary fullett> you can sal
<sal> amos iimplied it wouldnt work
<gary fullett> I know long term
<gary fullett> I am bullish grains
<gary fullett> but I buy support and sell resisatnce
<gary fullett> so I trade within the time frames
<gary fullett> he doesnt do that that much
<gary fullett> amos if he likes a monthly chart
<lmarsh>-><lmarsh> don't fret, I miss a lot too. man this class is great
<gary fullett> will buy and hold
<Peggy> deeper pockets than me!!!
<gary fullett> me if I like a monthly chart I will trade it on a daily basis
<gary fullett> but I will always have a small postion
<gary fullett> as not to miss the whole move
<gary fullett> the CM does this
<mrj> good night everyone thanks
<gary fullett> he buys and sells all the time
<Peggy> nite, mrj
<fibo> nite mrj
<sal> k
<gary fullett> night mr j thanx
<lmarsh> nite mrj good luck
<SteveF> good night mrj
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<gary fullett> he amy buy 1000 contracts
<gary fullett> and sell 500 within a day
<sal> gary one quick trivia ?
User [Randy /209.130.164.36] joined forum at Tue Mar 14 22:49:40 EST 2000
<gary fullett> but on a monthly still be long
<gary fullett> yes sal of course
<gary fullett> hey randy
<fibo> hi Randy
<sal> ia it true Saddam had peons buying crude BEFORE
<Randy> hi everyone
<gary fullett> tonights log was good please read the archives randy
<sal> he waved his sabres years back ?
<sal> Tx story
<Randy> thank goodness for the archives!
<gary fullett> probably
<gary fullett> I think this rise in crude oi
<gary fullett> is from OUR government and not OPEC
<sal> my oil friends said they finally caught on and the last scare did nothing to market
<gary fullett> to slow the economy
<gary fullett> higher oil higher gas
<gary fullett> slow down economy
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<lmarsh> that's the word going around here too gary
<Peggy> Nite all.
<gary fullett> I think the US governemt
<sal> 50 % of our stripper wells shutdown on 12 oil, not up yet
<gary fullett> thought a few rates hikes would
<lmarsh> nite Peg,, good luck
<fibo> nite Peggy
<gary fullett> weaknen the economy
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<gary fullett> but it didnt so the us gov
<Frank> <Enter Text Here>crash
<sal> hey i bot 1 qqq put Friday !
<gary fullett> raised gas prices so people dont drive and spend less
<gary fullett> YEah
<sal> :)
<gary fullett> 4600 is my target in the nasdaq
<vik> thanks and g nite
<fibo> nite vik
<eric> good trade, sal
<sal> now i dont know what to do ??
<gary fullett> thanx vik
<lmarsh> nite vick
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<gary fullett> r u making money?
<Frank>-><sal> sorry I grossed u out
<sal> yep bot at 16 , closed at 23 1/2
<sal> peanuts to y'all
<eric> good night to all, thanks
<gary fullett> sell and make money :)
<fibo> nite eric
<gary fullett> well I will see you all tomorrow night
<lmarsh> nite eric, 
<SteveF> thanks! see ya'll next time.
<gary fullett> have a great night all
<fibo> nite gary thanks
<sal> k
<gary fullett> see you tomorrow
<lmarsh> yes
<davep> nite Gary, thanks
<sal> nite
<Randy> nite everyone
<lmarsh> nite steve, gary & thanks
<davep> Good night, everyone
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