User [gary fullett /152.202.115.152] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 20:52:42 EST 2000
<sal> gary, hi good call on crude yesterday , did you play it?
<gary fullett> yes I did
<gary fullett> sold it last night
<gary fullett> about 2 am
<gary fullett> even thoughamos and I disagreed
<sal> good job, post it to my account ? :)
<gary fullett> if I had control of the account I would have sold it for u too
<gary fullett> but I ddint think a call at 2am would be appreciated at the turner household
<gary fullett> :)
<sal> wonder if jim sold , he sure wanted to last nite
<gary fullett> not sure..
<gary fullett> there is a grain report on friday morning
<sal> could you not sleep thinking bout it or do you have an alarm when target gets hit?
<gary fullett> crop production
User [mrj /206.251.168.72] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 20:57:36 EST 2000
<gary fullett> i get up 3-5 times a night
<sal> hi
User [Gordy /63.88.62.71] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 20:57:49 EST 2000
<gary fullett> and I look at my screen as I go to the bathroom
<mrj> Hi gary and sal and gordy
<sal> you must be fun to be around :)
<Gordy> Hi all
<gary fullett> I live and breathe this stuff
<sal> impack of crop report ?
<gary fullett> I am always doing charts and watching markets
<gary fullett> I get out in the afternoon to walk the dog ect...
<gary fullett> not sure
<gary fullett> hi gordy and mr j
<sal> got mine on my lap as we speak
<gary fullett> it was 78 today
<gary fullett> but the crude move made my day today
<sal> same here
<sal> i bet congrats
<gary fullett> yeah but im in chicago :)
<mrj> got knock last two nights hope it doesn't happen tonight
<gary fullett> that is why I want people to call me often
<gary fullett> to see these moves
<sal> will that affect drought worries again or ease early planting?
<gary fullett> I thought it was something I said Mr J :)
<gary fullett> not sure I dont watch reports
<Gordy> me too and could not get back in
<gary fullett> but i know them
User [SteveF /209.214.194.195] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:00:06 EST 2000
<mrj> hey steve
<gary fullett> the internet has been bogged down lately
<sal> gary, any opinion on feeders? 
<SteveF> Hey ya'll
<gary fullett> I know chas swab and other brkerage firms 
<gary fullett> had major problems
<sal> looks like creek on left another on right 
<gary fullett> which month sal?
<mrj> hate not being here
<sal> i thinkit was may
<gary fullett> into resisatnce should pullback
User [amos /62.0.147.200] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:01:35 EST 2000
<gary fullett> hi steve
<gary fullett> woops it 8pm
<SteveF> What do you mean mrj
<mrj> hi amos
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<amos> hi
<SteveF> hey gary
<mrj> got bounced last two nights couldn't get back in
<gary fullett> maybe the internet traffis has prvented some poeple from cominh in to class
<gary fullett> oh well
<gary fullett> I am sorry
<gary fullett> I dont think it was a server problem
<gary fullett> but I can call them tomorrow and see
<gary fullett> I paid my bill :)
User [lmarsh /208.205.55.196] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:03:30 EST 2000
<mrj> no I think it was on my end
<gary fullett> k
<mrj> Hey marsh
<Gordy> I think my problems were local
<SteveF> I thought you were awful quiet last night mrj :)
<lmarsh> Hello good people
<gary fullett> okay otherwise I will check and see on my end
<gary fullett> hi lmarsh
<gary fullett> well did anyone have any questions? 
<gary fullett> on wyckoff?
<sal> is there any wyckoff equivalent for double creeks, a la may feeders ? almost as if it is divided right down middle?
<mrj> :) steve
<gary fullett> ormarkets in gneral?
<gary fullett> what do you mean double creek?
<sal> i'd use head n shoulders but that isnt wyckoff
<gary fullett> you mean several retests of the creek area?
<gary fullett> ok
<gary fullett> that is true head and shouldeers in wyckoff doesnt exist
User [RobinH /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:05:29 EST 2000
<gary fullett> but one can say a retest 3 times
<gary fullett> welcome robin
<gary fullett> so this can look like distribution
<gary fullett> in feeders
<gary fullett> I will have to study a chart of may feeders sal okay
<sal> ok
<sal> thnx
<gary fullett> to give you a more accurate technical analysisi
<gary fullett> well any other questions?
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> I promised sal that I would discuss risk magaenment
<gary fullett> tonight
<gary fullett> so that is what I will begin with
<gary fullett> but first if there are any questions first?
<gary fullett> I am waiting for someone to mention crude :)
<sal> i did
<Gordy> crude
<lmarsh> good call on crude
<SteveF> will invite more male bonding :)
<gary fullett> i know you did it was before 8pm so it didnt counrt :)lol
<sal> way to go again
<gary fullett> i am joking
<gary fullett> sal
<gary fullett> I just want to mention somehting
<gary fullett> last night amos and I somewhat disagreed
<gary fullett> and thaT is trading
<lmarsh> I thought it was really good that both sides were given , though. I really like this .
<gary fullett> but we are on the same page
<gary fullett> we both subsribe to wyckoff
<gary fullett> amos and I differ in our time frame
<gary fullett> I being a former floor trader
<gary fullett> am natually shorter term in duration
<gary fullett> I deal with clients and my backround generally causes me to be this way
<gary fullett> amos on the other hand used wyckoff
<gary fullett> in a larger picture
<gary fullett> but let me stress
<gary fullett> WE BOTH follow wyckoff rule and principles
<gary fullett> so I may be right on a daily basis or intraday
<gary fullett> but amos perspective is longer term
<gary fullett> and he isnt as sensitive many tomes
<gary fullett> do intraday or daily flucuations
<gary fullett> the GOAL of this class
<gary fullett> is for us to piece to toghether a puzzle as amos likes to say
<sal> 
<amos> 
<mrj> 
<SteveF> 
<Gordy> 
<gary fullett> and come up with a picture that will make is money using wyckoff
<gary fullett> a man that I believe is critical to understanding markets
<gary fullett> so we may agre to disagree
<RobinH> 
<gary fullett> on somt imes frames
<gary fullett> but in crude
<gary fullett> we shoudl be looking for support
<gary fullett> and buy support with a stop
<gary fullett> so I enjoyed last night as it gave a great perspective
<gary fullett> last week when the "news" was that OPEC
<gary fullett> was increasing proction
<gary fullett> I knew that the market
<gary fullett> had to go higher
<gary fullett> becaus the cm doesnt annouce bearish news at the top
<gary fullett> so the market had to go higher
<gary fullett> to get more longs
<gary fullett> and to stop out more shorts
<gary fullett> and when I saw crude up so sharply yesterday I felt that this was short term climatic
<sal> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> does everyone undersatnd what I explained with amos and I?
<sal> y
<mrj> y
<SteveF> yes
<lmarsh> y
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> our time frame may be differnet but what is importatnt
<gary fullett> to now is that wyckoff is what we must follow
<gary fullett> as close to the principles as we can
<sal> does the sell off in crude give us a better chance at long gold, or negate the long scnario
<gary fullett> well I dont like to equate the 2 in that way
<gary fullett> but I htink gold as we discussed lst night
<gary fullett> has shown demand several times
<gary fullett> and should work higher
<gary fullett> and crude has obviously
<gary fullett> proven itself
<gary fullett> so it issupplt that must prove itself
<gary fullett> supply
<RobinH> 
<amos> 
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> does anyone think that todays action in crude is a top?
<SteveF> trend still up..may be just volitility
<lmarsh> possible, need to see reaction
<gary fullett> if we dont believe this then we must find support to buy
<gary fullett> the trend is up
<gary fullett> so we should look for a buying opportunity
<mrj> distribution hasn't taken place yet
<gary fullett> very god lmarsh
<gary fullett> we should alays be alet for a trend change
<gary fullett> if gold was so bullish today why the sharp reaction today?
<gary fullett> yesterday being strong
<gary fullett> sorry
<SteveF> accumulation still?
<gary fullett> yes steve
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:23:35 EST 2000
<gary fullett> just like in the grains
<gary fullett> these sell offs are the cm
<gary fullett> saying "dont ride with me"
<gary fullett> hi davep
<davep> hi everyone, sorry i'm late<Enter Text Here>
<gary fullett> so they have these shakeouts....
<sal> hi
<mrj> hi dave
<gary fullett> u r excused..
<gary fullett> lol
<lmarsh> hey davep
<gary fullett> did everyone watch the grain action today?
<mrj> y
<sal> n
<lmarsh> looking @ it
<Gordy> 
<sal> please summarize
<gary fullett> after yesterdays wek close the amrket spent mot of the day in positve ground
<lmarsh> beans strong
<gary fullett> I will sal
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> this means to me that the cm
<gary fullett> was buying and supporting his postion
<gary fullett> and that the 506 support
<gary fullett> that we talked about as support
<gary fullett> may not get hit
<gary fullett> and the market is string and didnt retrace today
<gary fullett> so if the 522 area in beans is taken out we can have a good move higher
<gary fullett> wheat acted well tody as well
<gary fullett> nd that has been on the ropes relative to the rest of the grains
<gary fullett> questions?
<gary fullett> okay lets talk about RISK MANAGEMENT
<sal> ok !!!!
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> some people
<amos> 
User [Randy /209.130.164.95] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:28:20 EST 2000
<gary fullett> like to use an equity stop
<gary fullett> $$$$ stop
<gary fullett> some poele like to use a percenage of equity stop
<gary fullett> hi randy
<Randy> hi
<gary fullett> some popel like to place a stop under a major support or above a major resisatnce
<gary fullett> which is the best kind of stop to use?
<gary fullett> well lets discuss all
<gary fullett> 3
<SteveF> outside support and resistence
<gary fullett> equity stop
<gary fullett> lets say that u have small acocunt
<gary fullett> and u are trading scared
<davep> 
<gary fullett> u may only want to risk a samll amount of money
<Randy> sounds like me
<Randy> lol
<gary fullett> and place a stop above support if long
<gary fullett> or under resisatnce if short
User [sherri /207.112.162.158] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:31:10 EST 2000
<mrj> hi sherri
<sal> hey sherri
<gary fullett> well if you are long and place your stop above support
<sherri> hey
<gary fullett> u probably will get hit
<gary fullett> and the market will take off withought u
<gary fullett> the stop shuld be under that support
<gary fullett> but with limited funds you deccided not to do this
<gary fullett> hi sherri
<gary fullett> so you were right the mrket went up 
<gary fullett> but you were wrong because th e stop wasnt in the RIGHT place
<gary fullett> do you see what I am sating?
<sal> y
<gary fullett> saying
<lmarsh> yes
<mrj> y
<Randy> y
<davep> y
<Gordy> y
<gary fullett> poor stop placement because you are under capitialized
<gary fullett> I think we all may have been there at some point or another..
<RobinH> 
<gary fullett> next
<gary fullett> some people will use a percentage stop
<gary fullett> say.. 1 percent of equity
<gary fullett> like amos mentioned last night
<gary fullett> so a 100k account will risk 1000 dollars 
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> if you did this with a 5k account what would be our risk if it was 1 percent
<gary fullett> ?
<Randy> 50 bucks
<sal> a commission
<SteveF> 50
<lmarsh> 50
<gary fullett> cant really do this trade can u
<gary fullett> with slippage and all
<davep> about the commissions, leaving nothing 4 slippage or error
<Randy> not much of a stop
<gary fullett> so that is where the $$$ stop comes in
<gary fullett> right
<gary fullett> u r all right
<gary fullett> so 1 percent on a small account CANT be done
<gary fullett> questions on the risk management of the 2 examples I gavce?
<gary fullett> gave
<Randy> unless your trading Mid Am and then it's iffy
<amos> 
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> well in midam corn it is 5 cents
<lmarsh> k
<gary fullett> 50 bucks
<davep> midam = hi slippage & lousy executions?
<gary fullett> no not really
<gary fullett> I getde cent executions on the midam
<gary fullett> bad spacing
<sal> comm high percentage of cost on midam
<Randy> doesn't mid am pretty closely follow movements of the cbot large contracts?
<gary fullett> yes it can be sal
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> Yes Randy
<gary fullett> now the third money management
<Randy> then you might get away with a 5 cent stop
<gary fullett> I like to place a stop at a level that if I get stopped out
<gary fullett> the market trend will changed
<gary fullett> the oposite of the way I thought the market was going
<gary fullett> this happened to me in sugar about a month ago
<sal> so do you place order for two? to stop and reverse?
<gary fullett> I was long placed my stop under the trendline
<gary fullett> and it stopped me out and the market went 50 points lower
<gary fullett> that is not a bad idea in some markets sal
<gary fullett> so if I buy sugar at 540
<gary fullett> and my trendline support is at
<gary fullett> 500
<gary fullett> where should I place my stop?
<lmarsh> 
<Randy> 
<gary fullett> maybe like 486?
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> now what if I cant or dont ant to risk
<gary fullett> 54 points in sugar about 600 bucks
<gary fullett> ?
<gary fullett> I must either get better entry point
<SteveF> you figure the risk reward first. Then you see if you can afford were the stop MUST be placed based on sup/res. 
<gary fullett> and if I can do this buy a breakout with a closer stop
<gary fullett> very good steve
<gary fullett> it is always a risk to reward game
<gary fullett> ALWAYS
<gary fullett> u want to have at least 3 to 1 risk to reward
<gary fullett> sometimes a market stalls
<gary fullett> and u ant out eailer
<gary fullett> want
<gary fullett> and u ended up risking what u made
<gary fullett> example
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> today I had sebveral clienst long gold
<gary fullett> the stock amrket began to rally
<gary fullett> gold didnt look strong to me intraday
<gary fullett> it should have rallied sharper
<gary fullett> based on yesterday good cloase
<gary fullett> but when the market labored I got out at 295
<gary fullett> and some at 29420
<gary fullett> area
<gary fullett> my point s I thought gold would go to 300
<gary fullett> so my ridk to reward was 4 to 1
<Randy> what was entry point?
<gary fullett> but as the market didnt showed strenghth I had to liquidate
<gary fullett> 28970
<gary fullett> stop was at 29630
<sal> what if clients had longer term view, would you have held?
<amos> 
<mrj> What made you think it would go to $300?
<gary fullett> very very good point sal
<gary fullett> Yes
<gary fullett> I would have
<gary fullett> and my stop would be under contract lows
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> or at least under the creek area
<Gordy> 
<gary fullett> I had my count there mr j
<mrj> ok
<gary fullett> also it was a psychological number
<gary fullett> like nasdaq 5k yesterday
<lmarsh> 
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> so those are the 3 types of money management
<gary fullett> exept the fiest one is based purely on an undercaptialixe trader.
<gary fullett> first
<sal> ok, hypotheitically our jim (fromlast nite) wanted to short crude, say the volatility and risk were too
<davep> 
<sal> much, could he have gone with an int the money put with a delta about 5o and held for the day...
User [RobinH] left forum at Wed Mar 08 21:52:41 EST 2000
<Randy> 
<sal> meant at the money
<sal> if up he made 1/2 future , if down risk 1/2 as much
User [gary fullett /152.166.246.10] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 21:54:25 EST 2000
<gary fullett> sorry I got logged off
<amos> 
<gary fullett> sodoes everyone undersatnd risk magement the 3 ways?
<mrj> 
<Randy> y
<sherri> 
<sal> gary can you see my ?
<sal> above?
<lmarsh> y
<gary fullett> the best to me is the third way place the stop undermajor support or resisatnce
<gary fullett> no i didnt sal sorry
<gary fullett> the money may be more expensive but in the long run I think more profitable
<gary fullett> can u repeat sal?
<sal> ok, let's say jim wanted to short crude last nite
<gary fullett> I donrt like the percentage stop,,
<gary fullett> okay'
<lmarsh> k
<sal> but risk was too high, could he have got at the money put 
<sal> with delta of 50 to play short term drop?
<sal> 1/2 profit, but only 1/2 risk?
<sal> kinda creating your own daily mid am
<gary fullett> yes that could have been done
<gary fullett> the problem with options in crude is that u pay
<gary fullett> a high price for volitity in options
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> but yes an option near at the money would have been great
<gary fullett> the problem with that is that last night u couldnt have bought a put
<gary fullett> becaus eit is thin and the amrket was down sharply
<sal> k
<gary fullett> u would have to pay p alot to get in
<gary fullett> and would nt have made much money today if any
<sal> so how did you play crude, where was yourovernight stop>
<gary fullett> amos do you have a commnet about risk management?
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> it was above the high made early in the evening
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> 3429 area
<amos> yes and one day I will post my rules.
<Randy> 
<gary fullett> good...
<amos> It is more important than market analysis.
<amos> I do not know which of the 3 methods is best--it has to do
<sal> y
<gary fullett> can u shed some light tonight or should we wait for the rules to be posted
<amos> with personality and fathers account size
<amos> .
<davep> Gary, have sort of related risk management ? u might only want to discuss one on one, but do u have quidelines for "appropriate" size modest a/c, or is that ompossible issue?
<sal> what about diversification , like goldilocks what is tooooo much, what's not enough?
<gary fullett> davep that is best answered one on one
<gary fullett> to ones needs
<gary fullett> and risk level
<gary fullett> good question sal
<gary fullett> a good rule of thimb is that u should have more than 40 percent tied up in margin
<gary fullett> so if u have a 10 k account
<gary fullett> 4 k should be only used for margin
<gary fullett> why do I say this?
<davep> cuz a leverage
<gary fullett> for drawdowns so you dont have to meet a margin call
<lmarsh> in case of drawdown,,, yes
<gary fullett> so if u lose several thousand you can ride out th move against u
<sal> helps prevent insomnia
<gary fullett> yes lamrsh
<gary fullett> Baruch Braruk
<gary fullett> a famous trader once said
<gary fullett> about margin " put a position on so you can sleep at night"
<gary fullett> your sleep level
<gary fullett> if you are overmargined
<amos> Bernard Baruch
<gary fullett> u will not sllep well
<sal> Linda Raschke mentioned she has courage to wait for place to sell higher even after she has had BIG loss
<gary fullett> sorry mos that is what i meant 
<gary fullett> my apology
<gary fullett> I doubled up his name
<gary fullett> I DONT like to ad to losers
<gary fullett> I never have
<gary fullett> if I am wrong I should get out
<gary fullett> not add to misery
<sal> i meant close out not sell higher, sorry
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment about adidng to osing postions?
<gary fullett> losing
<amos> Read Jesse Livermore.
<amos> Unless you ARE the CM you should never do it
<gary fullett> I have many many times
<sal> her point was a percipitious drop is followed by AR which she waits for to close
<gary fullett> understandwhat amos and I are saying
<amos> The concept of money and risk managements (two related, but different issues) is something
<gary fullett> I agree with that
<amos> that works agains human nature.
<Randy> 
<amos> Even tho we BUY insurance, we noramlly do not expect to die, or get into a car accident.
<SteveF> I have a money management theory " you Must hold out for your 3 to 1 profit objective to cover previous losses and still have profit".
<mrj> 
<amos> Hope, positive thinking, optimisms--are human nature.
<amos> The market place is the OPPOSITE of human nature and therefore
<amos> you have to get used to think it terms of losses. THe Phantom of the Pits (I have the site)
<amos> says that rule number one-- you have to think losses. You have to accdept losses.
<sal> he's my hero
<sal> :)
<davep> Amos, can u reveal who he is?
<amos> When Richard Dennis recruied his turtles--one of the questions in the WSJ
<amos> was : Do you LOVE taking losses?
<amos> So money management--means--alwasy think:
<amos> "WHat is the worst case scenario? and CAN I withstand it with out being
<amos> thrown out without possibiility to fight another day.
<amos> The PHantom of the pits is a clever marketeer
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> but hasnt the dennis fund tapped out several times?
<lmarsh> 
<SteveF> 
<davep> He's not THAT clevr is he? I downloaded his book for the cost of the paper.
<amos> the fact that someone loses does not mean he is not smart.
<sherri> yes gary ...he has
<sal> :)\
<amos> Van Goch died very poor.
<gary fullett> I know sherri I have worked with him
<sal> me too dave
<amos> here is POP the Phantom of the pit:
<amos> http://www.csinet.net/asimpson/forward.html
<gary fullett> no amos but in this biz money is the only rason we trade
<gary fullett> if we didnt trade to make money smarts does us no good
<amos> Money is a mysterious word. MUch< constant? enough? 
<gary fullett> so did livermore die poor
<gary fullett> the idea of trading is take the first loss
<gary fullett> the first loss ids the best loss
<gary fullett> and to make more than u lose
<gary fullett> the reality in this business
<amos> I do not know, he committed suicide--but he probably could always make money. He said money , per se, 
<gary fullett> is that isf u are right 30 percnet of the time you should make money
<amos> did not interest him. He said money was the power to accomlish your wishes.
<sal> livermore / van gogh both suicidal, nice company
<sal> think i ll cut off my ear for luck
<SteveF> lol
<amos> Hemingway, Kennedy, Martin luther King. King Solomon
<amos> King Solomon , in particular: look: the wisest man on earth and he went to sleep with his fathers.
<lmarsh> 
<sal> ill stick with roy rogers, mickey mantle arnie palmer ,and charles schultz the good guys
<gary fullett> :)lol
<amos> Warren Buffett dances every morning to work.
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> not lately with his stock :)
<sal> i d dance too if i were worth billions !!!1
User [fibo /206.104.30.215] joined forum at Wed Mar 08 22:20:34 EST 2000
<gary fullett> that is because he is so rich and the money dances with him
<lmarsh> ditto sal!
<amos> OY, he went form 80 bil to onlyu 40 bil
<sherri> hi fibo
<gary fullett> it is still a bit hit
<lmarsh> hey fibo
<gary fullett> u would like to lose that
<fibo> hello everyone. just now got the chat room to load
<gary fullett> I wish I had it to lose :)lol
<mrj> hi fibo
<amos> But we would miss you in this chat room if you had, Gary
<gary fullett> no I would still do the chat if I had billions
<lmarsh> :)
<amos> like hell
<gary fullett> i do love this work
<SteveF> can we have that in writing
<gary fullett> whatever the money brings
<gary fullett> I would
<sal> the chat keeps us all human
<gary fullett> one has to do something with his life
<sherri> that much money is a big problem
<gary fullett> but I would nt do it from chicago nor everynight
<gary fullett> yes sal
<amos> getting up at 4 am is human, sal?
<gary fullett> amos u r a rare breed
<gary fullett> I know from experince :)lol
<gary fullett> but i love u
<sal> teaching special emotionally ditrubed kids isnt either amos
<gary fullett> amos thats right sal has the toughest job and the most rewarding
<amos> that is noble
<SteveF> you could have a penthouse in the top of cbot bldg
<sal> i ll take money over nobility ( :)
<gary fullett> so lets talk abit on grains
<sal> k
<Randy> 
<davep> 
<gary fullett> amos can u post the rules on the site when you get them done
<gary fullett> since fibo is here and she like the grains
<amos> when I find it. I wrote it in a mathematical form once
<gary fullett> amos do you want to start with the bean action?
<fibo> gary the CM is driving me crazy on these grains :-)
<gary fullett> okay ...
<gary fullett> todayb was easy i thought
<amos> I thyink the beans tested 509, bounced and closed strong. Should continue
<gary fullett> buy the lower opening place stop under 503
<amos> up strongly to the 523 area
<gary fullett> did u like the action today?
<amos> Van Damm was better
<gary fullett> lol
<gary fullett> I thought you were a steven seagall fan?
<amos> No, he is Jewish
<gary fullett> oh that right :)
<sherri> fibo...explain what you are talking about
<amos> I do not thi8nk that the daily action is important now in the grains
<gary fullett> the 520-522 level is the next s resisatnce in grains to me
<amos> We are ina waiting period and each individual day is insignificant
<gary fullett> the weekly is more important now?
<amos> absolutely, and the monthly
<gary fullett> so buy the grains and be able to finance them for a move higher?
<amos> remember: If April goes above Jan-March--it is a bullish sign
<fibo> the last 3 days have just been sideways
<gary fullett> yes in a range
<gary fullett> fibo
<gary fullett> buy the breaks sell some on the rallies
<Randy> 
<gary fullett> what do u feel is the strongest grain?
<amos> Meal
<gary fullett> do u feel the bean complex will lead everything higher
<gary fullett> lamrsh :)
<amos> I do not think that way. I want to judge each market on its own merit
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> fair enought
<gary fullett> but the meal seems to have the best action
<sal> 
<fibo> grains are up tonite
<lmarsh> ;)
<mrj> :)
<gary fullett> yes I mentioned that fivo
<amos> how is tonight different from all other nights?
<gary fullett> fibo sorry
<gary fullett> :)lol
<gary fullett> it is wednesday and yesterday was tuesday
<amos> rotfl
<sal> :)
<gary fullett> so it is a differnt night
<fibo> it's not amos but when you are long you like to see it up anytime :-)
<sal> amen
<gary fullett> very true fibo very true
<amos> fibo that was a loaded statement
<gary fullett> amen on ash wednesday interesting
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> grains seemed to be doing some nice work
<gary fullett> at these levels
<gary fullett> and the accumaultion is getting more and more everyday
<fibo> every dip is bought
<gary fullett> so this move can be a large one
<gary fullett> what would cause the market to move out of this range?
<sherri> weather
<amos> flight to quality
<mrj> demand
<gary fullett> what excuse would the cm use?
<fibo> when CM accumulates all they want
<lmarsh> good point, on the dips being bought,..like that
<gary fullett> I mention this for a reason
<gary fullett> vey well said
<gary fullett> very
<fibo> the excuse would be "drought"
<Randy> russia buy 100 billion bushels
<gary fullett> Friday is a grain report
<amos> Pinochet
<gary fullett> do u think that this may be the "news" that the cm uses?
<sal> news- beans cure impotence,and sagging breats!
<Randy> absolutely
<SteveF> lol
<mrj> lol
<gary fullett> so on Friday when the :news " is out and if the market rallies
<gary fullett> sharply
<amos> sal, that is a start-up
<fibo> lol@sal
<sal> :) amos
<amos> 
<lmarsh> Pinochet?
<davep> nothing worsse than sagging breats!
<gary fullett> they will use excuses on why this happened
<davep> won't beans follow crude?
<gary fullett> but a wyckoff student should be ready to anticpate this move right?
<gary fullett> sal :)
<gary fullett> Tofu maybe
<gary fullett> as wyckoff students we hould anticipate the news
<gary fullett> look at the pices of the puzzle
<gary fullett> the "news" shouldnt surprise us
<amos> NO GARY, we shuld IGNORE them
<gary fullett> as we are positioned for the "news"
<gary fullett> i know we should ignore news
<gary fullett> what I am saying is that the news
<gary fullett> will give the public thereason to support the cms postions
<sherri> what if this is distribution?
<gary fullett> we should "know the news" before
<gary fullett> so the "news " doesnt surprise us
<amos> what is distribution sherri?
<gary fullett> we dont trade on news
<sherri> cm selling to buyers
<amos> what market?
<sherri> beans
<amos> when?
<gary fullett> but the news will aloow the funds and public to support our position
<sherri> past week
<amos> we are at 27 year lows and this is distribution?
<sherri> they are record short
<amos> you know them personally?
<sherri> LOL
<amos> you mean the COT?
<sherri> just don't know how to tell the difference
<gary fullett> amos I think we failed
<amos> WHat do you mean we, WHite Man?
<gary fullett> dont tell the differnce with the cot
<SteveF> lol
<gary fullett> watch volume and price action
<sal> 
<gary fullett> distribution in beans?
<gary fullett> after we talked them up
<lmarsh> lol @ amos,..again
<gary fullett> I am not white
<gary fullett> I mean we were alking about support in benas
<gary fullett> and the Cot says short them?
<Randy> according to my chart gary beans have been following trendlines nicely
<amos> sherri, distribution is the process of selling something for the purpose of
<gary fullett> mine as well randy
<amos> taking prices down. WHere do you think we go?
<sherri> just asking amos
<sherri> what if
<gary fullett> please ask sherri
<amos> The weekly chart had a higher high!!
<gary fullett> we are here to help...
<sherri> yes
<mrj> 
<fibo> 
<amos> the weekly and monthly downtrendlines were broken, there is
<amos> a possible preliminary support last July and a selling clilmax and we have
<amos> seen a potential automatic rally. What more do I need?
<amos> Why should I think that CM is short if the process on the chart say
<amos> says he is BUYING!?>
<sherri> ok
<amos> ok what?
<Randy> sherri, if you bring trendlines off the lows of 12/13, 12/17, 1/3 and 1/10 you will see that may soybeans are following the trendlines almost perfectly.
<sherri> he is buying...so is everybody else
<sal> so amos could be dead right long term and sherri could be right this week?
<amos> NO, most people on forums are short!
<amos> I do not want to be dead any side
<sherri> didn't know that amos
<lmarsh> got to go people, thanks for another GREAT chat, nite.
<sal> oops 
<amos> You should get to know that amos
<fibo> nite lmarsh
<sherri> me either amos that is why I am asking
User [lmarsh] left forum at Wed Mar 08 22:48:25 EST 2000
<amos> that is OK,. I am having a ball
<sherri> NEXT
<mrj> sheeri on the monthly PS was in Nov Dec 1998 SC in July 99
<amos> BTW, sherri-if I am wrong--I have a stop loss.
<sherri> right amos...me too
<sherri> by the way...I am long
<gary fullett> sherri that is markets
<gary fullett> everyone has the right to thier opinionis
<sal> amos since you look at weeklies on beans , is your stopped based on weeklies also
<amos> should be.
<gary fullett> like crude last night i was short term bearish amos longer term bullish
<gary fullett> but we should all think with logic and stops
<sherri> didn't say I was bearish gary
<gary fullett> I know u didnt
<sal> amos if stopped is basedon weeklies how do you apply to different month contracts
<gary fullett> but when u mentioned distribution this means to me lower prices
<amos> you use continuation chart!
<sal> please explain for beans
<amos> when you look at Lussier's site, he even uses continuation on the DAILY!!!
<amos> the stop on the continuation after March expires will be the last low that
<amos> March did around the 495 area
<mrj> 
<SteveF> 
<sal> that is carried into may?
<amos> Yes
<sal> what happens when you go from old tonew crop/
<gary fullett> yes sal
<Randy> 
<amos> IThat is always my preferance
<sherri> 
<amos> (new crop , that is)
<fibo> 
<davep> 
<sal> must be getting sleepy, justgot lost
<amos> Sal, when you look at long term charts- you neve think old, new--it is one
<amos> continuopus market.
<amos> My reference to old and new had nothing to do wiht the market
<sal> ok but stop of 495 may is x amount below close, that 495 for july is X plus 10 below its close
<sherri> 
<amos> Too bad, sal , such is life
<sal> so you have to allow more room for more time in future?
<amos> Look, you do not get anything for nothing. IF you want to make the big
<amos> bucks in Nov beans--you have to take a larger rist. Pure and simple
<sal> yeah, got it :)
<gary fullett> but if you can buy good support
<Randy> 
<gary fullett> in nov beans you can help eliamte lot of that risk
<gary fullett> that is why buying support is important it will help in risk and money mangement
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<gary fullett> good class tonight
<sal> so one might go long term nov and trade may?
<fibo> thanks gary & amos for going over the beans
<gary fullett> I did this for u fibo
<gary fullett> we are all in the same boat:)
<fibo> :-) thanks
<amos> we thrashed them, did n't we?
<gary fullett> I hope the up boat lol:)
<fibo> lol
<amos> ok gn all
<fibo> nite amos
<sherri> nite
<gary fullett> I will see you all tomorrow night
<mrj> gn amos
<fibo> nite gary
<davep> gn & thnks
<sal> let's harvest them
User [amos] left forum at Wed Mar 08 23:03:35 EST 2000
<gary fullett> it is morning for amos
<gary fullett> it is 4 am
<SteveF> see ya'll next time ..Thanks
<gary fullett> so he is getting ready for breakfast
<fibo> nite Steve
<mrj> gn gary and everyone thanks
<gary fullett> thank u see you all tomorrow night
<Randy> nite all
<gary fullett> goo nite good trades
<sal> nite
User [mrj] left forum at Wed Mar 08 23:04:25 EST 2000
User [sal] left forum at Wed Mar 08 23:04:26 EST 2000
<sherri> thank you nite
<fibo> nite all 
User [Randy] left forum at Wed Mar 08 23:04:29 EST 2000
User [gary fullett] left forum at Wed Mar 08 23:04:29 EST 2000