User [gary fullett /171.222.97.44] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 20:59:04 EST 2000
<gary fullett> hello
User [Gordy /63.88.62.63] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 20:59:43 EST 2000
User [SteveF /209.214.195.157] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:00:17 EST 2000
<Gordy> Hi Gary
User [mrj /209.16.79.148] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:00:30 EST 2000
<gary fullett> good evening
<SteveF> hello
<gary fullett> did everyone get the charts?
<mrj> Hi gary, gordy, steve
<SteveF> yes
<mrj> y
<gary fullett> cocoa had a nice move
<Gordy> y
<gary fullett> I did send lots of charts tonight
<gary fullett> so everyone can review them
User [jim /152.206.22.148] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:01:51 EST 2000
<gary fullett> Markets are going to move alot
<jim> hi, all.
<gary fullett> hi Jim
<jim> hi
<mrj> hi jim
User [amos /62.0.147.224] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:02:24 EST 2000
<gary fullett> this is partly due to the fact of the volitilty of the stock market in my opinion
<gary fullett> welocme amos
<SteveF> stocks down and several commodities up huh?
User [sal /206.175.234.9] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:02:52 EST 2000
<gary fullett> welcome sal
User [davep /24.147.119.114] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:03:11 EST 2000
<sal> hi everybody
<gary fullett> before I begin
<gary fullett> are there any questions on wyckoff?
<davep> hi everyone
<gary fullett> or markets in general
<sal> yes you mentioned
<gary fullett> hi davep
<gary fullett> okay sal
<sal> sugar on post, just the May contract?
<gary fullett> I would start to trade the July
<sal> for accumulation based on spred?
<gary fullett> rather than may at this point
<gary fullett> I would day trade may
<gary fullett> but I would position trade july
User [lmarsh /208.205.55.183] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:05:17 EST 2000
<sal> your deifinition of position trade is ?
User [Peggy /206.173.161.156] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:05:41 EST 2000
<sal> hey peggy
<Peggy> Evening, classmates
<gary fullett> if you keep the postion for a month or so
<jim> i have a question - does the bond market mirror the commodity market?
<Peggy> You were missed last night, Amos
<amos> tks
<gary fullett> in the past as commodities prices go up
<gary fullett> bond prices go down
<gary fullett> interest rates higher
<gary fullett> the reason being the nasty word INFLATION
<jim> now the stocks are down. bond is going to go up... so called flight to quality.
<jim> is that bearish for comm?
<gary fullett> yes that is true jim
<gary fullett> no i dont think so
<gary fullett> as a matter of fact i believe comodities are just
User [fibo /204.119.225.62] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:08:15 EST 2000
<gary fullett> begginning to rally
<jim> so this time around, bond and comm are in synch?
<fibo> hello everyone
<SteveF> hello
<gary fullett> well interest rates have gone up quite a bit
<Peggy> evening, Fibo
<gary fullett> and commodities have just begun to react
<gary fullett> hi fibo
<lmarsh> hi fibo
<gary fullett> the only true bull market at this point is the energies
<gary fullett> so the bonds are ahead of commodities
<gary fullett> I think bond people react first before th commodities
<jim> that figures.... a time frame issue.
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> it is a money flow thing
<amos> 
<gary fullett> remember what I said
<jim> thanks.
<gary fullett> that there is a certain amount of money out there
<gary fullett> and it needs to find homes
<sal> i have an open house
<gary fullett> in this case from bonds into commodities
<gary fullett> from blue chip stocks to NASDAQ stocks
<jim> :)
<gary fullett> it is obvious
<gary fullett> in the stock market stocks
<gary fullett> do u see the divergence
<gary fullett> ?
<jim> y
<SteveF> nasdaq/vs dow /sand p?
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> those stocks in those particular indexes
<gary fullett> are very divergent
<gary fullett> any other questions?
<gary fullett> good question jim
User [RobinH /147.72.69.187] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:14:19 EST 2000
<gary fullett> welcome robin
<fibo> hi Robin
<gary fullett> I would like to talk about crude oil
<RobinH> hi everyone
<gary fullett> since we all drive :)
<gary fullett> what is the trend?
<mrj> 
<SteveF> up
<jim> up
<fibo> up
<lmarsh> up
<gary fullett> thats obvious
<gary fullett> just look at the pump
<gary fullett> lol
<sal> Texas gold up
<davep> up, up & away like the balloon
<gary fullett> what nees to prove itself when the tend is up demand or suply?
<davep> supply
<sal> supply
<SteveF> supply
<Peggy> supply
<fibo> supply
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> very good
<gary fullett> when a market is rallying this sharply
<gary fullett> what d we look for
<gary fullett> to end the trend?
<mrj> bc
<fibo> BC
<lmarsh> bc
<SteveF> buying climax
<gary fullett> very good
<gary fullett> what happens in a BC?
<sal> bc for bill clinton supplying 
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> lol
<Peggy> :)
<mrj> wide price range heavy volume
<jim> wide range
<SteveF> large price action / increased volume
<gary fullett> wide range heaviest volume?
<davep> broadening rnage on high volume with lower close
<gary fullett> very good
<gary fullett> thought he close doesnt necessarily be lower
<gary fullett> look at the action today
<gary fullett> volume was pretty heavy today
<gary fullett> sometimes a BC happens over a period of 2 days
<jim> note also the divergence between vol and price for the past 10 sessions.....
<gary fullett> very good jim....
<fibo> yes
User [Lavona /207.50.1.168] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:18:53 EST 2000
<fibo> hi Lavona
<Lavona> <Enter Text Here>hello
<fibo> higher prices but lower volume
<gary fullett> hello welcom lavona
<Lavona> Thanks
<davep> so that mans less supply coming in?
<Peggy> hello, Lavona
<gary fullett> so Imwoudl look for this to happen soon
<davep> means
<Lavona> Hi everyone
<gary fullett> lack demand it would mean davep
<Peggy> because supply hasn't proven itself yet?
<gary fullett> but remeber last week the "news" was that Opec was going to increase supply?
<amos> Why are you looking for an end of the only distinct bull market?
<gary fullett> right peggy
<Peggy> great news to keep going long on, Public
<gary fullett> I am not necessarily looking for the end of the bullmarket
<gary fullett> amos
<gary fullett> but I am watching ,market action
<amos> why , then are you atnticipating a BC?
<gary fullett> and looking for things that I recoginize
<gary fullett> becasue of the price action
<Lavona> Doesn't it take 6 mos to a year for supplies to fulfil need
<amos> the price action says we are going to 40
User [Mary /206.72.36.56] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:21:42 EST 2000
<fibo> hi Mary
<gary fullett> that is fundamental and I dont follow that lavona
<gary fullett> welcome back mary
<Lavona> hi Mary
<gary fullett> and I think that we may go to 40
<Peggy> Hello, Mary
<jim> maybe looking for a dip to enter long......
<lmarsh> how do you determine that amos?
<gary fullett> but I think the BC can still go up several dollars
<Mary> hi
<amos> the trend is UP
<gary fullett> I am just alerting people t price action 
<RobinH> 
<gary fullett> and to me this must be watched
<amos> Gulf war resistance is 40
<gary fullett> it would be riskty to be short here
<amos> you should be encouraging people to be long here, Gary
<gary fullett> for many yrs peopel have called for a top in the stock market
<gary fullett> as well
<gary fullett> I cant do that at these levels
<gary fullett> but I would recommend buying pullbacks at support
<amos> at least do not mention any bearish possibility
<gary fullett> well this is what I see
<gary fullett> I see a strong market 
<amos> What do you see?
<gary fullett> that is showing volitile action
<gary fullett> with wider ranges lately
<gary fullett> this puts a caution to me
<gary fullett> when crude was at 11 dollasr
<amos> but we closed at the high--the facts say: we are going higher
<gary fullett> I recoomended in class that this was a selling climax
<gary fullett> even though the whole world was very bearish
<gary fullett> looking for 8
User [SteveF /216.78.77.8] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:25:11 EST 2000
<gary fullett> they are still looking for 8 :)lol
<gary fullett> I undersatnd fully what you say
User [Randy /209.130.164.46] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:25:48 EST 2000
<gary fullett> but I am just alerting people to price action 
<gary fullett> and to cAUTION
<gary fullett> I am not recommeding selling short
<amos> price action is extremely bullish so far
<gary fullett> doesnt the volitilty bother you?
<amos> what volatility? demand is so far in clear control
<Peggy> 
<mrj> 
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> okay we agree to disagee
<davep> 
<fibo> 
<lmarsh> 
<SteveF> lol
<Mary> 
<gary fullett> my point is that last week I mentioned
<gary fullett> that with opec annoucing "news"
<gary fullett> that is was
<gary fullett> inceasing supply
<gary fullett> I said that the CM doesnt nnounce his bearnishness
User [Lavona] left forum at Tue Mar 07 21:28:08 EST 2000
<gary fullett> on the top
<gary fullett> so I felt that the market
<gary fullett> would go higher and it did
<gary fullett> I do agree that the market action is bullish
<gary fullett> but I mentioened the energies
<gary fullett> to alert them to a possiblity of a BC
<RobinH> 
<sal> 
<gary fullett> all bull markets stop with the news being the most bullish
<amos> But, by talking about a BC in a bull market--you are baising yourself against the trend!
User [Lavona /207.50.1.168] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:29:42 EST 2000
<gary fullett> I am not looking for a downtrend but I could see the market break hard if we see the BC
<gary fullett> that is true
<jim> in a short time frame.....
<amos> But Wyckoff said to wait for a bc , not to predict it
<gary fullett> but arent we doing that in all commodities right now amos?
<gary fullett> so all commodities are bearish
<amos> Yes, if we are at major support or resistnace!
<gary fullett> so why should be long any of them?
<amos> ??
<gary fullett> we talk about being long grains
<davep> 
<gary fullett> but the trend is down correct amos/.?
<lmarsh> welcom back Lavona,.......to keep form getting "bumped" off chat, you'll need to "say" somthing or hit <enter> every now & then?
<amos> what is the connection?
<gary fullett> my point is 
<gary fullett> we havent seen a sc in any commodities so we shouldnt be long
<Lavona> ok
<gary fullett> any of the
<gary fullett> commodities
<amos> Gary, you pound here to pay attention to relative strength
<gary fullett> yes
<amos> crude is the strongest, yet you talk bearish the strongest??
<gary fullett> I am not talking bearish
<gary fullett> I am talking to watch for the possibity of a bc
<jim> can i say something?
<gary fullett> yes of course jim
<gary fullett> I would NOT sell the energies short here
<jim> say i am bullish oil..
<gary fullett> I am say watch them closley at this point
<jim> can i scape for a profit by going short
<jim> is this a gook time to do that?
<gary fullett> it is risky jim
<jim> i know i am bucking the trend
<gary fullett> but if you sell resisatnce with a top you are going against the trend
<gary fullett> stop
<gary fullett> but it can be done
<gary fullett> it is human nature to sell a strong market and buy a weak one
<amos> Pleasse go to this url when you have time:
<amos> http://www.elliottwaveinsights.com/me/cl.htm
<gary fullett> I would only do this with an option
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> so the risk is smaller
<amos> then you see clearly that 41 is last high. If you want to go short there
<amos> you are welcom, not before
<gary fullett> okay thank you amos
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> my point is to watch this amrket carefully
<fibo> thanks amos
<gary fullett> amos and I agree that the market is bullish and in an uptrend
<gary fullett> my point is to watch it at this levels
<lmarsh> good point(s) guys!
<davep> wud u look for 50% correction of today's move, to scalp from long around 3300?
<gary fullett> that is the market people
<gary fullett> agian davep risk is involbed bucking the trend
<gary fullett> my guess is that the market corrects from these lvels several dollars
<gary fullett> but that is based on my experience and feel
<gary fullett> but that isnt wyckoff
<gary fullett> but I am human too
<RobinH> 
<Randy> 
<Lavona> 
<amos> To be wyckoff is to be inhumane?
<jim> may be it is good to short oil day trading?
<gary fullett> when I see the action up 2 bucks and the "news" becoming more bullish
<gary fullett> I think sell
<sal> 
<gary fullett> I dont want peopel really to buck trends
<gary fullett> buying support would be ideal in an uptrend
<gary fullett> lets see what happens over the next week or so
<gary fullett> but it is a good market to watch at these levels.....
<gary fullett> questions on crude?
User [Frank /207.230.57.60] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:40:04 EST 2000
<jim> today's price broke out of the upward channel,,,,, is that a thrust?
<jim> a false move?
<jim> no sorry
<gary fullett> depends on the action tomorrow jim
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> I want to breifly make a comment
<mrj> Hi Frank
<gary fullett> please clas amos and I both are big followers of wyckoff
<gary fullett> but even wyckoff people can see a market a tad differntly
<fibo> hi Frank
<Peggy> hi, Frank
<gary fullett> I want to talk about beans for a bit
<fibo> yes
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> and then let amos talk about them later again
<sal> 
<Frank> hi mr j fibo every one
<gary fullett> last night I mentioedn
<gary fullett> that I thought the grain
<gary fullett> would pullback today
<gary fullett> that the close of may beans abive monor resisatnce of 515
<gary fullett> monor
<Lavona> 
<gary fullett> minor
<gary fullett> that this ggod close
<gary fullett> probablt would nt hold
<gary fullett> but as amos would like to say
<gary fullett> look at the whole picture
<gary fullett> and in 2 days the grain market went no where
<Frank>-><fibo> fibo, did u try that I gave you?
<gary fullett> corn up 3 1/2 yesterday
<Randy> 
<SteveF> 
<gary fullett> down the same today
<gary fullett> so we are in a trading range
<gary fullett> and we are trying to biuld cause
<gary fullett> okay?
<SteveF> yes
<gary fullett> I want to talk about the s and ps
<gary fullett> next
<gary fullett> remeber several weeks ago
<fibo>-><Frank> no . we really didn't understand how to do it. 
<gary fullett> I mentioend that the S and ps seem to have weakness
<gary fullett> in early January
<sal> y
<Frank>-><fibo> ok
<gary fullett> and that the market then had a retest
<gary fullett> in mid Jan
<gary fullett> but failed to make new highs
<gary fullett> and I said that the s and p s for the whole yr never finished higher
<gary fullett> and to me this was bearish
<gary fullett> now there has been NO market in the history
<gary fullett> that has a a longer bull market
<gary fullett> than the stockmarket
<gary fullett> yet we were able to identify
<gary fullett> this weakness
<gary fullett> and the subsequesnt break
<gary fullett> the market facts are
<Frank>-><fibo> have u read the gann where he says to divide by 16 to get a normal reaction or rally?
<gary fullett> the last 6 out 8 weeks the market has closed LOWER
<Randy> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> and the dailies have made lower lows as well
<sal> 
<gary fullett> do you see this on the chart?
<SteveF> yes down
<lmarsh> y
<fibo>-><Frank> yes or by 8ths
<fibo> y
<Randy> y
<gary fullett> to me we should test the bottom of the parrell channel at the 1320 area
<amos> 
<jim> again note the divergence between price and volume right before the sow
<gary fullett> do you see this?
<Lavona> y
<gary fullett> parrallel channels are excellent techinical tools
<gary fullett> if used right
<davep> 
<gary fullett> yes jim noted 
<gary fullett> lower highs and lower lows
<gary fullett> so far for 3 moths
<gary fullett> months
<gary fullett> the point is several weeks ago we identified this remember?
<sal> 
<gary fullett> so so far our analyisis is correct..
<SteveF> yes
<gary fullett> the overall trend is UP
<RobinH> 
<gary fullett> but one can see that if you seeposible weakness
<Frank>-><fibo> or by eights, yes. divide a daily by 128 or 256 and it will give the daily reaction or rally.
<gary fullett> moneyvcan be made
<sal> but it would have been a risky trade with such range wouldnt it?
<gary fullett> look at the close at the end of the yr
<gary fullett> yes sal
<gary fullett> no one would have predicted
<gary fullett> the break that we have had
<gary fullett> but if you noticre the break
<gary fullett> the first week in Jan this was weakness right?
<gary fullett> well what happens if crude does the same thing this week?
<fibo>-><Frank> o.k.
<gary fullett> that is my correlation from my conversation
<gary fullett> eariler
<gary fullett> I am just sayng with crude watch it
<gary fullett> just like we watched the most bullish market in the world
<gary fullett> go lower this yr
<lmarsh> hope your right, paying $1.43 today for a gallon!!
<gary fullett> I paid 165
<gary fullett> it is cheap fot u lamrsh
<gary fullett> this was my point
<gary fullett> understand?
<gary fullett> amos is right with his targets
<SteveF> $1.21 today at costco
<lmarsh> y
<Lavona> y
<Frank> i stay home
<gary fullett> send me some
<jim> you know it is again a time frame issue....
<sal> sorry guys i like high oil prices, helps my taxes
<gary fullett> gulf war targets
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> butI watch for unuasual things
<jim> why can't i short oil day trading!!!
<gary fullett> and crude ...
User [sherri /207.112.162.169] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 21:54:19 EST 2000
<davep> 
<gary fullett> you can jim
<fibo> hi sherri
<Peggy> 
<sherri> hi
<gary fullett> questions on the s and p chart?
<Lavona> hi
<Peggy> hi sherri
<jim> what next supports?
<gary fullett> did u have a comment on the s and p amos or fibo or anyone
<lmarsh> what's the price of gas / gallon for you amos?
User [mrj] left forum at Tue Mar 07 21:55:11 EST 2000
User [sal] left forum at Tue Mar 07 21:55:14 EST 2000
<amos> $4.00/gal
<SteveF> you can daytrade long with the trend in your favor
<gary fullett> about 2950 is the good upport
<lmarsh> ooof!
<gary fullett> amos rides a rickshaw now
<fibo> wow
<Frank> poor amos
<amos> it is normal around the world. Only Americans live hifh off the hog
<gary fullett> it is because the arabs dislike him
<gary fullett> that is true amos
<gary fullett> gas in europe is very expensive
<amos> 65% is taarif
<gary fullett> questions on the s and p?
<gary fullett> amos cooment?
<amos> not on s and p, only beans gold and crb
<lmarsh> ah! taxes!!!! the main theif!
<fibo> lets talk beans
<SteveF> all up today
<jim> brb
<Frank> amos it is a cold hard world out there and if someone has too live high off the hog it might as well b me
<amos> sumer is coming Frank
<amos> summer
<gary fullett> okay amos please talk about those 3 markets
<Lavona> Beans, Beans what is happening there?
<amos> Ok
<Frank> it is already here, i am running around in shorts and t shirt
<amos> I am looking at the chart Kelly sent.
<amos> The trend line Gary drew is good.
User [sal /206.175.237.37] joined forum at Tue Mar 07 22:00:16 EST 2000
<gary fullett> amos I still love you even though we disagree on crude :)lol
<amos> Where is support?
<amos> ?
<sal> sorry had to step away, topic?
<gary fullett> 506
<Peggy> hi, sal
<fibo> beans
<gary fullett> beans
<sal> thanks
<amos> correct. 506 is support from two sources:
<gary fullett> u r welcome
<amos> 1. the uptrendline
<SteveF> 
<Peggy> is this male bonding?
<SteveF> lol
<gary fullett> sometimes Peggy
<sherri> 
<amos> 2. The los of Feb 1st was 506. This was the first support on the
<Peggy> lol, love it
<amos> decline from the high.
<amos> Notice that the market penetrated this low,
<gary fullett> I know amos longer than my first wife :)
<amos> tried to go lower for 3 days and then demand came in
<amos> (will you please pay attention to things that matter?)
<gary fullett> i am sorry
<amos> now we had first rally to 520.
<gary fullett> my first wife doesnt matter :)lol
<amos> The next reaction sould find support at 509 to 506.
<sal> :)
<amos> If you want to go long you wait for a thrust around these levels.
<amos> All else is meaning less. To me.
<gary fullett> stop loss?
<amos> Stop loss is below lat lows at the 500 level.
<amos> question?
<gary fullett> would u buy a new high for the move above todays high if the market doesnt go to support?
<gary fullett> above 520?
<amos> IF the volume is very strong (and you can tell it from the tick volume) yes.
<gary fullett> or wait for a 60 minute break out?
<amos> We must close high for the day
<gary fullett> what do you consider high?
<amos> We are talking now strategy. Tactics depends on your temperament and account.
<amos> The point is that I only want to go long and I want to wai
<Lavona> 
<amos> wait for a buy signal.
<gary fullett> so buying support is a buy signal?
<amos> NO
<gary fullett> okay
<jim> in amos method... what is a buy signal?
<amos> For me a buy signal is a higher high on a time frame.
<amos> on a 60 min--it is a higher high on 60 min bar with a stop loss below the last 60 min low
<lmarsh> 
<Frank> what kind of time frame amos?
<jim> next time frame down?
<amos> If you operate on the daily--it is a higher high on the daily,
<amos> if you ooperate on the weekly--highr high on the weekly
<amos> The stop loss is always the low of the bar before.
<davep> so if u were ONLY using end of day data, you'd buy strong opening after close on high?
<amos> (no, the low of the last swing!)
<amos> NO,.davp, strong opening has nothing to do with it.
<Lavona> 
<amos> You buy a higher high. If the opening is a gap--you have to
<amos> be careful, because the markiet may correct intraday
<amos> I remember one time coffee opening 20 cents higher, correcting 10 cents
<amos> and closing higher and going from there another 2 dollars higher.
<sherri> 
<amos> If you bought the opening, you had right awasy, 10 cents loss
<amos> which could be frightening.
<amos> But if you bought the end of day--you never got stopped out.
<fibo> 
<lmarsh> 
<SteveF> 
<davep> 
<amos> Gold gave a daily buy signal today.
<sal> 
<Lavona> 
<amos> Youshould be long gold with astop below several days low
<Frank>-><fibo> fibo you want me to try again?
<amos> Look at gold chart #7
<fibo>-><Frank> i guess i didn't write it down right. husband said he didn't understand the question
<gary fullett> good point amos
<jim> 
<amos> You do not want to go long April, you want to buy june. But the stop loss will be
<lmarsh> k
<fibo>-><Frank> it would be more clear if you gave an example
<Lavona> 
<sal> 
<gary fullett> may I make a commnet about beans first
<amos> the low of the last 3 days.
<amos> question?
<gary fullett> does everyone see the downtrend I drew?
<amos> yes
<lmarsh> yes
<gary fullett> it comes in about 522
<fibo> y
<gary fullett> so this level is above this weeks high and above resistance
<Peggy> So I guess I'll hang onto my June 380 call some more?
<gary fullett> so this may be a buy signal for some
<Frank>-><fibo> a range from a low to a high. divide the range by the low, get the percentage.
<gary fullett> I just wanted to point that line out
<amos> yes peggy
<gary fullett> I would peggy
<amos> Gary,, now if we go to 522 in the next few days--that resistance will have
<gary fullett> or roll them to a later month
<Peggy> k
<amos> a very different meaning on the weekly chart--it will be a thrust on the weekly and most
<amos> likiely the market will burst thru the daily downtrendline.
<fibo>-><Frank> k
<amos> The trend is up right now--so we should only look for points to go long.
<amos> one more poikt about the crb
<Frank>-><fibo> take that percentage times the high, subtract the number from the high, gives u the target low.
<amos> can I?
<sal> k
<davep> 
<SteveF> yes
<amos> The rally from the 206 had a unique characteristic.
<amos> The first 2 days were very vigorous.
<amos> WHen a market comes of support (in our case a jump and back to creek!)
<amos> with vigor--it tells you that the CM has NO time. He is in a hurry 
<fibo>-><Frank> 
<amos> (he is not in a Sally)
<fibo>-><Frank> k
<amos> to go higher.
<Frank>-><fibo> if the price goes below the target low there is a trend change and a good place to sell, or when it gets ,
<amos> That means that he knows that prices must go higher. He is also makking
<amos> it very difficult for speculator to join the move, because thye initial stop loss
<amos> is immeiately-prohibitive.
<amos> Here is a maxim: The hardest trades are usually the best trades.
<amos> Question?
<lmarsh> sounds good amos
<gary fullett> yes
<gary fullett> with the vigourous rally in the crb
<amos> The probability that the crb is going to take out previous high is over 80%]
<Frank>-><fibo> within the ball park of the target low it is a safe place to to plant resting buy stops,
<gary fullett> would u expect the market to pullback
<amos> what market?
<gary fullett> and accumulate at lower levels
<sal> 
<gary fullett> because the cuase isnt htere yet
<amos> what market
<gary fullett> crb
<gary fullett> it rallied sharlpy from 206
<amos> Gary the Crb has been in accumulation for the last 7 months!!!
<gary fullett> without lots of cause
<fibo>-><Frank> o.k.
<gary fullett> okay so this rally just shows strenghth
<gary fullett> by it being so vigourou
<amos> After a jump and back comes MARK UP
<gary fullett> just asking questions for the class
<Frank>-><fibo> which do not engage unless the market comes back to you, like deer hunting without dogs.
<amos> OK
<gary fullett> I want everyone to be clear
<gary fullett> do you have a price objective?
<amos> on the crb- we are going to 226
<amos> PLease, everybody
<amos> use this site of Robert Lussier:
<amos> www,elliotwaveinstights.com, I gave
<jim> P&F?
<lmarsh> writeing down
<amos> earlier--he has the best long term charts (alas, without volume, nothing is perfect)
<amos> and you can see the accumulation in the crb
<amos> jim, I do not have now P&F to my chagrin
<amos> http://www.elliottwaveinsights.com/ag/crb.htm
<amos> while you are looking at the chat drag your mouse on the screen and
<sal> how could someone enter this market without big risk,/nerves of steel?
<amos> press control-C and you copy the screen to the clipboard.
<amos> You can then paste it to whatever editor you have open
<gary fullett> amos can you answer sal?
<amos> sal, you should not trade the crb--just use it as a guide for things to come
<gary fullett> if you thought the crb was going up
<gary fullett> and you didnt want to trade the crb how would you play it amos?
<amos> The uprend in the crb-is an indication that strong uptrend in commodities
<amos> Buy a daily thrust!
<Lavona> 
<Peggy> 
<fibo> 
<amos> But your risk will be at least $1500 on such a trade
<sherri> mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
<sherri> 
<sherri> 
<sherri> 
<sherri> 
<amos> What a long m and m
<sherri> sorry
<amos> its ok , you are long cocoa
<SteveF> look for strong commodities that are part of crb
<sal> :)
<lmarsh> lol
<Frank>-><fibo> if u devide 511 by 128, gives u 3.99. 511-4=507 and amos said to plce stops at 505 506 area for may soy beans
<gary fullett> very well said steve
<gary fullett> you are right
<amos> the strongest will lead, yes steve
<gary fullett> and survive as well :)
<gary fullett> I will survive a great song by Gloria Gaynor :)lol
<amos> I shall repeat what I said tonite?
<davep> is crb a leading indicator . . . or does it move simultaneously with its constituents?
<SteveF> wish we had sound
<gary fullett> lol
<amos> Beans have support at 509 and 506. If you want to go long
<gary fullett> please do amos
<amos> look for a buying signal there
<amos> Gold should be bought
<amos> Crb says we are going higher commodities
<amos> dave, the crb is a lagging inidicator
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> great points amos
<amos> Crude has been in a bull market long before the crb
<Frank>-><fibo> 1/8, 1/16, 1/32, 1/64, 1/128, 1/256 are multipliers of 8.
<fibo>-><Frank> thanks Frank mabye i have it down right this time :-) 
<davep> so the crb price objective of 226 reflects its playing "catch up"
<amos> playing catch up in what?
<sal> merrill lynch now out of retail commodity market, should be secure bottom :) for commoditiies
<fibo> lol
<davep> u said it lags, therefore its "following" stength in crude, etc.?
<lmarsh> 
<amos> no. I am saying to trade each market according to its own language
<amos> , but you have the backing of the crb to tell you that being long a commodity
<amos> is the right thing to do.
<amos> SUgar, for example, is still lagginig.
<amos> IOf we see a sign of strength in sugar--then we could go long
<amos> hoping for 2-3 cents rally
<Frank>-><fibo> let me know what u all think , I have not traded with this yet, I am trying to put togather a better-
<gary fullett> I will be reviewing these charts tomorrow
<gary fullett> suagr
<gary fullett> ect,,
<Lavona> What is your target for gold?
<gary fullett> we didnt go over all the charts today
<davep> thanks amos
<gary fullett> gold objective amos?
<fibo>-><Frank> when we have a chance we will Frank.
<SteveF> 
<amos> at least previous highs around 320 or 340
<jim> amos, do you use trailing stops?
<amos> every time I go to a party
<Lavona> thank you
<Frank>-><fibo> way of defining reactions, rallys, and time periods, to better forcast moves.
<Peggy> 
<amos> jim, trailing stop is part of money management!
<lmarsh> !
<amos> ON INO.com they had a forum with Gary smith
<sal> y i saw it
<amos> He is out of the market any time he loses 1% !
<fibo>-><Frank> he said he will check that out
<fibo>-><Frank> and check it with his fib.s
<SteveF> I saw that too
<sal> he also said his account is 800K :)
<amos> But he is trading funds which arer extremely diversifies.
<amos> over many years, sal
<sal> i know
<Frank>-><fibo> and to more safely enter markets with small stops
<amos> Get used to write to Alex on that forumj and ask for the transcripts for
<fibo>-><Frank> true
<davep> So he risks $8000 per trade?
<sal> he said the first few years he had to have part time jobs to keep afloat
<amos> the interview with good traders. You can learnt something
<sherri> 
<fibo>-><Frank> 
<fibo> 
<jim> is that alex elder?
<gary fullett> when does InO have these chats?
<SteveF> march 12th is Linda Rashke
<amos> Sal, you are already half a Gary smith
<sal> next Sunday nite is Linda Raschke
<amos> she is good
<sal> :)
<Frank> where sal?
<sherri> what time steve?
<sal> ino.com forum 8 pm cst
<SteveF> marketforum.com 8 pm cst
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> thank u
<amos> any otheer interesting observation about important support resistance in market?
<sal> steve is right , it's marketforum.com (part of ino)
<gary fullett> any questions for amos on his topics?
<SteveF> wait till monday then email Alex the moderator and ask for copy of chat
<amos> correct stevef
<sal> but if you are there Sunday then YOU can talk to her
<Lavona> 
<SteveF> true
<amos> Talk to Vishnu
<gary fullett> so it is marketforum.com?
<gary fullett> or ino.com
<sal> y
<sherri> nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
<gary fullett> yes ther eis amos
<gary fullett> the yen chart
<SteveF> www.marketforum.com
<gary fullett> it approched ice
<fibo> marketforum.com gary
<gary fullett> at the 9500 area in June
<amos> looks like 50 % retracement to me, the yen
<gary fullett> thank u fibo
<gary fullett> look at the yen chart
<amos> It is not that tradeable the yen, right now
<gary fullett> 9500 area is ice
<gary fullett> I would expect a nice pullback from this area
<gary fullett> to volitile you mean?
<amos> yes
<gary fullett> k
<gary fullett> amos if you are bullish gold
<gary fullett> how about silver?
<amos> I do not see the same behvior in silver, silver is mired at the lows.
<amos> Gold gave a buy signal
<gary fullett> do you think gold is showing more demand than silver?
<sherri> amos...is it looking to you like the crb could rest a bit here?
<Lavona> How about palladium
<amos> sherri, I have no idea
<gary fullett> too volitile to trade lavona
<gary fullett> thatwas my point earlier sheri
<amos> I am against giving opinions.
<gary fullett> about the crb after its run up from 206
<amos> I think that if we stick to facts and buy and sell signals--it is much
<gary fullett> that is may stay in this area for a time
<amos> better. I read many forums. Everyone expresses their opionions.
<amos> They are a dime a dozen. The important thing isto collect good information, get
<gary fullett> but if we express our opinions and are right we are better traders
<amos> to a point where you know your risk and profit parameteres and trade!
<gary fullett> good point amos..............
<amos> NO GARY, We are not.
<gary fullett> if we are profitable
<amos> Expressing an opinion is anty Roosevlet.
<amos> You should walk QUIETLY and carry a big stick
<lmarsh> 
<Peggy> 
<davep> 
<amos> The beautiful point about Wyckoff--is that he was only interested
<Frank> opinions are not like rectums, they don't all work
<amos> in collecting information and deducting from them.
<amos> Frank you HAVE a problem
<gary fullett> all rectums work frank
<SteveF> lol
<Lavona> nite
<sal> some night can we discuss tactics from a risk perspecitive of a small, med, big trader?
<gary fullett> night lavona
<gary fullett> good questions u asked
<lmarsh> nitght Lavona
<amos> we should, sal
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<fibo> nite Lavona
<Frank> bull amos
<gary fullett> sal how about tomorrow
<sal> great
<sherri> 
<Peggy> I'm going also. Thank you Gary and Amos. See y'all Thursday nite
<gary fullett> I will begin with this tomorrow about risk mangaement
<fibo> nite Peggy
<sal> nite peggy
<amos> nite peggy
<lmarsh> nite peg
<sherri> nite peggy
<gary fullett> how about that sal
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<gary fullett> any other questions?
<amos> unfortunately, Frank,I identify with you on that end
<sal> ok !
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<sal> different kind of crude:)
<Frank> no problem that I can see
<gary fullett> otherwise I will see you all tomorrow night....
<jim> gn
<Frank> goood nite all
<amos> gn folks
<fibo> nite gary thanks
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<lmarsh> sounds, good nite all
<SteveF> Thanks Gary and Amos
<gary fullett> good nite all see you all tomorrow night
<fibo> nite amos
<sal> thanks gary and amos for all your preparation 
<amos> de nada
<sherri> thank you
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<gary fullett> thank u all
<davep> good night everyone. Thanks Amos and Gary,
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