User [gary fullett /171.222.28.104] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 20:59:26 EST 2000 hey gary hello, Gary Hi gary, davep User [mrj /209.16.79.48] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 20:59:51 EST 2000 hi everyone hello, Dave hi mrj good evening.... Hi sal , marsh, peggy, dave, gary Mr. Jay can you see me? y y weather here in Ky has been great last 2 days, in the 70's yes gary User [gary fullett] left forum at Mon Mar 06 21:00:48 EST 2000 I guess he doesn't want to be seen!! our azaleas are in full bloom, User [gary fullett /171.222.28.104] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:01:08 EST 2000 wb gary good evening anyone seen ron lately? can you see me? not seen ron y no, it has been a few weeks, hasn't it yes gary did you send charts, Gary maybe his business is picking up, and he's busy -contractor no charts tonight tomorrow I spoke with Ron today he is very busy with his biz thanks, wondered if he was reading logs , if so hi ron ! he is..:) actaully I have been getting lots of emails about the logs We miss you, Ron and they love the way class interacts I think we are like the guinea pigs for people who are oversea and just read the logs oh ron, i wont phone again, just got phone bill, whew , canada is a tad expensive :) and people who work 2nd and third shift sal I know I am fighting with MCI about the rate to canada I work thirds, don't consider us quinea pigs, lol the want to charge me 10 times the amout they told me I know lmarsh but the 3rd shift peopel read the log in the morning so when we work hard they are sleeping actually i think mci charged.50 /min. but i just asked toooo many ?s :) User [eric /206.98.11.144] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:06:46 EST 2000 that's expensive hey, Eric they should charge you 8 cents per minutes hi eric hi eric hi peggy, mrj ,imarsh and all okay any questions? yes amos probbaly wont be here tonight I told him to sleep I will use tonight as a open forum and I will discuss some options as well nice of you,...he keeps odd hours as well? gary implied volatility in b oil and meal is still very low, options an option? like I did on thursday his father is ill and he is emotionally drained does Amos trade at night yes sal they are they wont sorry to hear that pick up till late april or may that is when grain volitity picks up User [fibo /204.119.225.201] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:09:01 EST 2000 due to planting anf eather weather evening, Fibo hi fibo yes peggy he does hello everyone hi fibo hi fibo hi fibo peggy did u have a questions so would calls be a low risk entry? yes. When volume and price increase and a few days later, the volume barely moves, or drops dramatically, what am I supposed to make of it on a pullback in grains to support sal what happens to price peggy? The price increases, but not as drastically oh I see that is a very long answer but I will explain to a degree now User [Frank /207.230.57.113] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:11:26 EST 2000 wyckoff principles are based on volume AND price action correct? User [Lavona /207.50.1.176] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:11:32 EST 2000 Hey Frank let me tell you what chart i was watching k y y hi mr j and every one which chart peggy? well let me explain in general hi Frank, Lavona when a market rallies hi fibo and the volume doesn support the rally or the rally is on weak volume what does this say generally? -> fibo, u gettin this private? it says that the rally is suspect false move,...market getting ready to change and that demand isnt in the amrket -> i think so Frank but it also says that supply isnt evident so this market must be watched to a degree what lmarsh says remember the bean chart amos talked about the other day and fibo touched on it as well -> ask your husband , or you if you ever tried this? ? -> o.k amos said and fibo as well that the break from the 55 rea to 502 Got it, Mar cotton the last few days User [Gary Fullett /171.222.28.104] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:16:41 EST 2000 sorry I got knocked out can you see me? yes -> take the range of a source , from low to high, or high to low Gary, Mar cotton is the chart. Yes -> yes gary k what question did u have on cotton peggy? then I will go back to beans on 3-1 vol of 256 3-2 volume 21 3-3 vol 17 but price increases are smaller that is because march cotton is in delievery and may is getting the volume -> u get that fibo? welcome lavona -> yes so you cant watch march cotton you Must watch May cotton okay peggy ? Okay, but May did the same thing -> divide that range by your source number for the percentage of the last move gettin close to resistance? okay what is the trend in cotton? up up anyone? okay correct so it is demand or supply that must prove itself? up demand supply demand is evident form the lows so it must be supply in order for this amrket to break supply must come in if not the market will rally -> i don't guess we have Frank oookkk so one would expects the breaks -> take that percentage of the from a high, or add that percentage to a low for the next to be on lighter volume than rallies thats okay sal Sorry I to leave thought I was off so if the market rallies on light volume what dooes this say? -> target low or the next targethigh -> high this says though demand is not evident on a rally suply isnt overtaking demand so the market remains bullish until supply comes in and one should buy breaks at support with stops there is always risk but keep a stop under support -> fibo is that understandable? Is today's action an upthrust for may cotton? How close?? -> i am not understanding what the source number is Frank I think it could very well be does evertone understand what I am talking about when I am talking about supply and demand? yes y -> the source number is a high or low atthe end of a 2 or 20 week trend, yes -> y y please stop me if you dont in an uptrand the amrket will continue to go higher until SUPPLY or selling on balance sets in it is supply that must come into the market to turn it bearish not lack of demand -> I have not tried this thing daily or weekly, just stumbled on to it today studying Gann -> o.k. Frank.. do you use this? does it work? this is becaus ein an uptrend the Demand has already provem itself please read those last few lines an please make sure you understand them the same is true ( but opposite) in a downtrend questions on what I am talking about this is IMPORTANT how can we filter out short covering from true demand, a la gold/silver -> It seems to back test well over wheat quarterly, but I just stumbled on to it very very good sal what happens when a amrket short covers up what happens to price action and volume? -> that is why I am asking you, or your husband? User [sherri /209.100.190.132] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:29:35 EST 2000 -> no we haven't used that Frank. up is right hello Sherri hi so how does one know if this is DEmand ? hi sherri hi, sherri every uptrend starts with wht is called short covering right what is that? but we as wyckoff students -> would u like to check it out , your husband good at math as he is and see what u think? know that when we see a seling climax the next rally isnt short covering but demand if we have a sharp rally with out a selling climax in a downtrend -> i wrote it down and will tell him. it s most likely sort covering so in a downtrend if we have had a selling climax th eAutomatic rally or AR is demand -> i am trying to learn to balance time and price ala Gann if the selling climax isnt evident -> thanks so much then it is probably short covering in a longer term downtrand undersatnd the difference? -> thanks you Frank Yes questions? so far? but every down move does not al?ways end with a selling climax 11-16-99 in May cotton was short covering? most do but not all eric thanks remeber markets are not an absolute sciene science i'm confused gary. isn't it lots easier to look at open iterest to filter out short covering? so that is why you must watch market action and behavior b back shortly User [Frank] left forum at Mon Mar 06 21:36:26 EST 2000 I dont davep generally a market will have a seling cliamx then the AR the AR can be concieved as short covering to the public though it is probably some demand short covering can look like Demand to a trader and vice versa please remeber when a market is bearish is it a double edged sword,,cause what has to prove itself? demand or supply? right sal demand shorts often reverse , buy buying two to go with move? but by watching market action can can see the cm 's intention yes sal right fibo Demand MUST prove itself in a downtrend so the Rally can be construed as demand or short covering r u saying short covering can be disregarded as (just) the CM's new buying, offsetting what he sold on a scale down? the CM buys on breaks so on a selling climax the CM BUYS the public sells to the cm the market gos from weak longs publics to strong longs the CM on the rally that the Cm conducts he SELLS into that rally into the short covering rally ( the AR) or the beginning odf demand the CM doesnt buy rallis or sells breaks makes sense? understand this? User [mrj] left forum at Mon Mar 06 21:43:32 EST 2000 the cm doesnt like company gary, is our everyday all americanfarmer part of cm? he doesnt like people on his coatails till the very bitter end yes they are sal to a great degree Cargils of the worls ADMM dont they play market a lot different than say cargill/kelloggs ADM that i not necessarily sal it is true they do hedge but they act like cm 's in the way they know market direction and have $$$$$$$$$ who knows more about his crop than a farmer? and who knows more about the crop than a farmer that sells to ADM or Cargil right, buy they arent "hiding" their movements like the big guys, arent they trying to protect their crop price? they do protect thier crop price they do hide it to a great degree you dont now when they hedge their crop when a market is in an uptrend supply must show up when the market is in a downtrend it is demand that prove itself dont always ready 1 days action as the gospel for a move whatch the area that a market is in with the volume questions? tell us about today's action/vol in cocoa,,,i didnt have chance to check interesting day in cocoa I mentioned last week that the market need a Jump over the creek do you all remember? y y y well what happened last friday? we gapped to the 850 area jumped the first creek I mentioedn that this would be resisatnce due to the downtrend line form the highs remember? yes , y y draw a line from the highs sloping it came in at 850 then what happened? got food stuck in creek mud? lol it broke to 828 and closed at 845 on Frday sal :) lol :) @ sal but it ddint finish above the resistance at 850 because of this the arket broke today it made a lower low at 820 and finished near its high at 842 toay what does htis action tell, you? that's a good sign, closing @ the high ,,right? that showed absorbtion of supply. may be poised to gap up demand comes in well that sloping line of resistance becomes lower right?> User [Lavona /207.50.1.176] joined forum at Mon Mar 06 21:55:40 EST 2000 wb Lavona so the likely hood lavona, hit the enter key every now and then of a good close and demand i like fibo's answer:) Thanks will probably mean that the market should work higher :-) and that the supply from 850 yeah i liked fibo's answer too ;) was quickly absorbed and demand will take over it has a second creek coming up, though? when a market has resisatnce and doesnt break hard and then closes near reistsance agin the nexday what does htis tell you about a market ? it is strong..... demand is still there strength can I tell u a secret how you can soemtimes tell a market will rally even the close was lower or at least the poepl in the pit think so right lmarsh fibo would u like to know/ YES y yessssssssss y ther a re 2 ways do you want both? :) YES YES yes sure!!! stop teasing us :) 1) we salivating gary, go!!! option pricing 2) spreads what did the call options do for July today? the ones near the money? the futures we down 3 would u expect the calls to be up or down?' ? down down down would expect to be down right that is what is expected today the 850 calls in cocoa we actaully UP 3 whta does that tell you what they think in the pit? that's cause i bot one and they know i'm a sucker I hope you bought it well? :) so the calls were up that is bullish and if the spreads align themselves as bullish that is the other ign knowing this secret will help you most times for the action tomorrow calendar spreads? watch spreads and option pricing sometimes sal give example please July options outpacing may becaus e they expect a move to unfold over time brb and may options expire nest month ok so they dorn buy options with 30 days left so they are selling may options and Buying july make sense? y yes y y y y remeber what I said that trading is a small nuiance? y must go folks,,, Good Luck tomorow & thanks for another good chat! Nite,.,.. this is one of them nite lmarsh if you day trade watch the opeing range User [lmarsh] left forum at Mon Mar 06 22:06:03 EST 2000 nite lamrsh nite lmarsh try to put every advantage in your pocket Gary, did Wyckoff teach gaps are always filled? i asl 'cuz lower part of todays range cud have been to close friday's gao . . .& move higher wyckoff NEVER believed in gaps are filled as a matter of fact he thougth gps were a pattern like head and shoulders which he didnt follow thee is a gap in Gm from 40 years ago people are still waiting for that gap to be filled :)lol gaps dont have to be filled and please dont look for them to be filled when a market Jumps over the creek the market may retest the creek but not fill that gap it created from the jump some poeple who are short in the market have a gap against them and ait for it to be filled in order to get out and the gap is Never filled and they get wiped out that hits home... gary, have you heard of gary smith? author/trader? questions so far? yes I have he was on ino chat Sunday I will leave the grains discussion for tomorrow as tomorro is a critical day in the grains to me said most all indicators are hogwash, it's price action that counts:) I FULLY AGREE corn pulled back to it's gap and rallied yes it did what makes it critcial (you got my knees shaking) the fact that a markt Doesn't that show strenght? corn & bean got across creeks today fills a gap isnt important and it is a coiicndence that it does wyckoff NEVER watched patterns yes it does patterns just are lucky to show up like head and shoulders pennants ect.. there are tricks but what makes tomorrow critical? there are No tricks to wyckoff price action and volume beands got above the half way point at the 515 -516 arrea today because sal if the good markets close leads to a rally tomorrow then the market can fly if the arket falls back into its range the amrket will most likely fall back to the bottom of support gulp if the market is bullish the market after taking out reisatnce today fly i don't want to hear about that falling back into the creek :-) so we should see follow thru tomorrow me either fibo but I must be objective yes I think most people heer know what I feel about grians watch the action my feeling s are that the grains add a yeast and getem to rise are not ready to move sharply higher but will hold support :)lol i vote for a gap tomorrow keep talking fibo lol do you see why I say this? me to y why Gary? if you rally aboive resistance the market should go to the next resistance I will go over grains thouroughly with amos tomorrow because fibo a close above reistance should mean a move higher if not it will be an upthurst tomorrow there will be many charts k are there any questions? about what I mentiend tonight? I am exhausted and would like to get to bed early tongiht? Tomorrow will be a 2 hour class sure Gary thanks and I wot be able to get thru all the charts good night, Gary good nite, thank you Gary I need to be sharp for clients tomorrow thanks gary see you tommorow good night Gary. Thanks very much ok thanks, everyone, nite User [sherri] left forum at Mon Mar 06 22:21:38 EST 2000 fibo, got a question as I think tomorrow will be critical for many markets o.k. Peggy good night nite nite all Have you done anything with time goal days User [Gary Fullett] left forum at Mon Mar 06 22:22:17 EST 2000