User [gary fullett /152.202.169.188] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:05:42 EST 2000
User [lmarsh /208.205.55.207] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:05:56 EST 2000
<gary fullett> good evening everyone
<buck> hi gary
<eric> hi, gary
<gary fullett> how is everyone tonight
<lmarsh> Hello 
<sal> hey
<gary fullett> before we begin any questions?
<gary fullett> did anyone see anything that was wyckoff related
<sal> yes, any idea why volatility of hogs gets lower for further out of money?
<lmarsh> been reading the posts, really good work
<gary fullett> not sure on that question sal
<gary fullett> matbe it has to do with prices further out
<gary fullett> the posts have been good
<gary fullett> it will be a great forum
<gary fullett> if everyone participates
<lmarsh> will do
<gary fullett> no questions>?
<sal> is there anything in wyckoff to explain nasdaq?
<gary fullett> that is a great question
<gary fullett> please remember that the stock market
<gary fullett> has ben a bull market since 1982
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> so the uptrend
<amos> 
<gary fullett> has been solid for 18 yrs
<gary fullett> it will take more than a few months
<gary fullett> to make a top
<sal> maybe we need a new word DG Defying Gravity
<gary fullett> that is why people get bearish when the markets break
<gary fullett> :)
<gary fullett> but the Uptrend is
<gary fullett> solidly up
<gary fullett> some stocks can be if
User [sherri /209.100.190.168] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:11:32 EST 2000
<gary fullett> in a bear market
<gary fullett> and some can be up
<gary fullett> so there can be diverencence
<sal> understatement
User [fibo /204.119.225.222] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:12:17 EST 2000
<gary fullett> but as amos always says
<gary fullett> we need to piece together
<gary fullett> a puzzle
<fibo> hello everyone
<lmarsh> just looked at a monthly nasdeq chart, last few months have been close to vertical
<sal> hi fib
<gary fullett> hi fibo
<lmarsh> hello fibo
<sherri> hi fibo
User [Peggy /206.173.174.128] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:12:49 EST 2000
<eric> 
<buck> hi fibo
<eric> 
<gary fullett> what do we know about this puzzle
<gary fullett> the market has been stright up
<sal> right lmarsh, kinda nervy
<Peggy> Evening. Please continue
<gary fullett> what has the volume done over the last few weeks?
<gary fullett> or months even?
<sal> up
<lmarsh> high, but no spike
<Peggy> subject?
<lmarsh> nasdeq
<sal> nasdaq
<gary fullett> it appears that the market
<gary fullett> with the heaviy
<gary fullett> volume and large price action
<gary fullett> maybe going thru a buying climax
<gary fullett> but this may last for months
<gary fullett> but no uptrend lines
<gary fullett> have been broken
<gary fullett> amos do you have a commnet on the nasdaq?
<amos> no
<lmarsh> volume has been higher last few months than normal.
<gary fullett> what do you feel is happening with record volume and volititly?
<gary fullett> yes lmarsh
<gary fullett> no comment? r u tyring to be a plotician amos? LOL
<sherri> 
<sal> feeding on itself, stong market attracks more players
<gary fullett> politician
<lmarsh> over bought maybe / climmax building
<gary fullett> very true sal
<gary fullett> I want to say a few words
<gary fullett> about the energies
<sal> k
<gary fullett> last yr when the market was at
<gary fullett> 1100 in crude
<gary fullett> I ooked at the weekly and saw a selling climax
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> about 2 weeks later in february
<gary fullett> futures magazine
<gary fullett> had an article
<gary fullett> and I remeber it like it was yesterday
<gary fullett> it said "How low can we go "
<gary fullett> well the market was about 1 dollar from the lows when this article came out
<gary fullett> does anyone remeber this?
<sal> yep, 
<gary fullett> This class is relatively new
<gary fullett> but I had posted this
<gary fullett> and talked about this in class
<gary fullett> and I said that
<gary fullett> crude would hit 35 dollars a barrel in a yr
<gary fullett> everyone laughed
<gary fullett> there is a reason why I mentioedn this
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> and it itsnt
<gary fullett> to toot my own horn
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> but to show you how the :news:
<gary fullett> is the miost bearish on the bottom
<gary fullett> and it is bullish on the top
<sal> i bot a call back around 12 and got out with $800 thinking I had defyed the experts
<gary fullett> getting back to the stock
<gary fullett> great sal
<gary fullett> should have rollled it :)
<sal> should have held and held and held
<gary fullett> but the news at 1100
<gary fullett> there was NO ONE bullish then
<gary fullett> now lets look at crude today
<gary fullett> because we trade futures not "past" ures
<gary fullett> :)
<sal> you're right even the oil men neighbors in Houston were negative
<gary fullett> the news is bullish right>?
<eric> 
<gary fullett> but there is still some sketitism
<fibo> y
<gary fullett> we hear that "opec is increasing prodution"
<gary fullett> did anyone hear this?
<gary fullett> we this mentioedn3 days ago
<sal> y
<sherri> y
<lmarsh> yes
<amos> 
<gary fullett> what did crude do this week?
<sal> up
<gary fullett> rally sharply?
<gary fullett> why
<gary fullett> with negative news
<gary fullett> does the market rally?
<lmarsh> market dropped little Monday
<gary fullett> do you think the CM present some bearish news on the top?
<gary fullett> No Way
<gary fullett> he would sell into the new highs
<gary fullett> anticipating
<gary fullett> a BC
<gary fullett> but the news is not frantic yet
<gary fullett> no at a greed level yet
<gary fullett> so the BC isnt there yet
<gary fullett> do you see this?
<lmarsh> yes, think so
<sherri> are you looking at a chart?
<lmarsh> looking @ march crude
<sherri> didn't get charts today
<gary fullett> maybe it is going thru a BC
<gary fullett> but the news needs to be even more bullish with out negative news
<gary fullett> no charts today sherri
<sherri> n
<gary fullett> I am just making a few commnets
<sherri> go ahead
<gary fullett> thank u
<gary fullett> so...
<gary fullett> getting back to sal question about the NASDAQ
<gary fullett> there is alot of negatism
<gary fullett> in stocks thought the nasdaq is on fire
<gary fullett> so this divergence still is not at a greed level so we make higher 
<gary fullett> highs
<gary fullett> as wyckoff students NEVER follow news
<gary fullett> 1 min please
<sal> not that i want to , but there is never support to buy on nasdaq :)
<gary fullett> thats true
<gary fullett> so even though I know the news
<gary fullett> please dont follow it to trade it will leave u to ruins
<gary fullett> this is why I belive the Nasdaq 
<gary fullett> is going higher
<gary fullett> the market and the CM's needs More bulls
<gary fullett> any questions on crude or the Nasadq?
<gary fullett> amos do you have a comment on crude?
<amos> not really
<mrj> 
<Peggy> 
<lmarsh> 
<eric> 
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> crb
<gary fullett> did anyone watch this amrket today?
<gary fullett> market?
<gary fullett> the market was up strong today
<fibo> y
<fibo> rallied good from the creek
<gary fullett> this was due in part by the energies
<gary fullett> we mntioedn last week and this week that 206 was support
<gary fullett> the market rallied over 4 point fom this level
<gary fullett> about 2 thousand dollar move !!!
<gary fullett> these sharp rallies
<gary fullett> to me are showing demand
<gary fullett> tho this index
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> so on pullbacks to support I believ ethat this market should be bought
<gary fullett> amos commnet on the CRB?
<amos> cash is strong, res at 215
<Peggy> 
<sal> in a market like this how could we place reaonable stops, 
<sal> or is it for bigger guys only?
<gary fullett> I think an appropiate stop in the crb is about 200 points
<gary fullett> about 1 thousand dollars
<gary fullett> no i dont think it is only for small poeple
<gary fullett> we are all small people
<gary fullett> trying to be big people :)
<sal> how did you know i am 5-ft 2?
<gary fullett> I am only 5 3
<gary fullett> so I am taller by an inch
User [Peggy /206.173.174.128] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:38:58 EST 2000
<gary fullett> any questions on the crb
<gary fullett> several popel have posted
<sal> :) 
<gary fullett> the crb
<gary fullett> how it is weighed
<gary fullett> did any see this?
<fibo> y
<eric> y
<lmarsh> Glad you brought it up again, thanks
<sal> y
<lmarsh> Y
<sherri> y
<amos> 
<gary fullett> print it out and keep for reference
<sal> dont yell too loud amos, but
<sal> for an index do you look only at its chart or also component charts
<gary fullett> sal please ask we are here to help
<amos> if you can see components-much better
<fibo> amos you mentioned last nite about discussing mixing methods
<mrj> 
<sal> hypothetical , if your crude looked overextended, then you would wait for correction for crb?
<amos> it is better to go fromthe macro to the micro
<sal> do you mean index to components or monthly to daiy or both?
<amos> crude does depend right now on crb
<amos> but is crb rallies--other sectors will follow
<gary fullett> amos--- fibo brings up a good point
<gary fullett> about mixing methods
<gary fullett> from last night can you elaoborate
<amos> Wyckoff was against mixing methods. You lose ability to identify where you went wtong
<amos> wrong.
<amos> simplicity is better
<amos> not much more than that
<fibo> k
<gary fullett> amos
<gary fullett> what chart was the most useful to wyckoff
<gary fullett> longer term or shorter term
<eric> 
<amos> daily with volume
<amos> He said to use all three time frames
<sherri> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
<gary fullett> Grain
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> we mntioedn yesterday about grains
<lmarsh> 
<mrj> 
<gary fullett> and we said that the market needs to resolve itself
<gary fullett> and that 515=516 were important
<gary fullett> levels in amy beans
<gary fullett> may
<gary fullett> well today 514 was reached
<gary fullett> and the market pullback
<sal> gulp
<gary fullett> amos had mentioned
<gary fullett> that if you canbut strenghth
<gary fullett> above higher highs you can be rewarded
<gary fullett> it appears to me thaT THE BEANS
<gary fullett> have developed
<gary fullett> a trading range
<gary fullett> btween the 495 and the 530 area
<gary fullett> with minor reistance at the 515-516 area
<gary fullett> and support about 500 area
<gary fullett> the market needs to show demand
<gary fullett> and good price action to move out of this range
<lmarsh> think it may trend sidways in range for another week, to build cause?
<gary fullett> I believe so Lmarsh
<gary fullett> that is a good observation
<gary fullett> but one never knows when this range will be broken
<gary fullett> todays volume seemed to be eak
<amos> today was a higher high and higher low.
<gary fullett> weak
<gary fullett> so to me a break on light volume
<gary fullett> shows lack of demand
<gary fullett> but more importantly
<gary fullett> lack of supply
<gary fullett> as I beleiev that demand
<gary fullett> has shown up
<gary fullett> amos do you have a commnet on may beans?
<Peggy> 
<lmarsh> assuming it does, it will make a big count on the P&F chart. Month & 1/2 buildup?
<sal> 
<amos> today was a higher high and higher low.
User [Frank /207.230.57.35] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 21:55:59 EST 2000
<fibo> hi Frank
<mrj> hi frank
<gary fullett> hi frank
<lmarsh> hi Frank
<lmarsh> 
<lmarsh> 
<gary fullett> go on amos
<Peggy> hi Frank
<amos> market should rally from here.
<gary fullett> questiions on beans?
<Frank> Hi Fibo Gary mr j and every one peggy marsh
<gary fullett> fibo did you have a comment on the beans>?
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> does any one have any questions on the grains
<gary fullett> especially beans
<fibo> well yes but it is not Wyckoff...it went to fib targets today and sold off.
<gary fullett> well if it is fib related can u commnet?
<gary fullett> I sure class would like to hear
<fibo> just a sec
<gary fullett> thank u
<Frank> mr j, get that envelope yet?
<sherri> 
<mrj> no Frank
<fibo> 1.618 of the first leg from the 500.50 low projected to 513.50 on a 15 min. chart
<mrj> ben waiting for it
<sal> 
<mrj> been
<Frank> understand
<fibo> then you take the next leg x 1.382 projects to 514.75
<fibo> 50 % ret. of the last leg down was 515
<gary fullett> are you friendly or bearish the market?
<fibo> resistance on Wyckoff at 514.50
<amos> 
<fibo> so we had a cluster of signals coming in in the same area.
<gary fullett> okay
<gary fullett> so what do u feel the market will do from here?
<fibo> we sold at that area and got out on close. 
<Frank> delivery confirmation number 0304 7990 2600 3050 at www.ups.com
<gary fullett> okay
<fibo> i am still friendly the corn and beans
<gary fullett> thank you
<Frank> www.usps.com
<gary fullett> any questions on Grains
<Peggy> A Q please?
<sal> how bout anothergrain, oats... is it showing sos?
<gary fullett> or anything we talked about tonight
<gary fullett> ys peggy of course......
<mrj> got it frank
<Peggy> Please, take no offense, Fibo, but in doing what Fibo does
<gary fullett> I thinkoats
<Peggy> and Wyckoff, is that mixing methods or another piece of the puzzle?
User [eric /206.98.11.177] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 22:08:07 EST 2000
<gary fullett> are constructive here and friendly support abot 2 censt lower
<fibo> it is mixing :-)
<gary fullett> since fibo is an experienced
<gary fullett> trader and has wyckodd experience
<fibo> it is kind of hard to unlearn important things about the market that you have studied for years.
<gary fullett> I feel that she is a value to us
<gary fullett> like everyone here is
<Frank> peggy, there is no one right answer
<gary fullett> but I believe she add because of her wyckff backround
<gary fullett> wyckoff used the 50 percent retracement
<Peggy> are you saying that as beginners, we should be purists for the time being?
<gary fullett> as a mjor tool for his work
<fibo> to me all of the old masters studied the same charts to come to their analysis
<fibo> of the markets
<gary fullett> one should always follow wyckoff as a urist if possible
<fibo> they just called the same point on a chart a different name.
<gary fullett> but that is probably impossible
<gary fullett> I agree with that fibo
<amos> that is correct fibo
<gary fullett> I believe we learn from people that have experience and knowledge
<Frank> fibo is right
<Peggy> that helps. Thank you, all.
<gary fullett> Ken roberts larry williams
<gary fullett> they took th old masters charts
<gary fullett> and renamed them
<fibo> yes
<gary fullett> they didnt reinvent the wheel
<gary fullett> they marketed it better
<Frank> they just repackaged it
<gary fullett> yes sir
<gary fullett> well any other questions?
<lmarsh> 
<sal> o. j.
<gary fullett> oj is guilty
<fibo> i think Wyckoff is one of the most important things of any method.
<gary fullett> next question lol
<fibo> lol
<sherri> 
<gary fullett> I fuly agreee
<gary fullett> Oj had good support athe 8330 area
<eric> 
<gary fullett> yesterday the market took out that support by 80 points and today
<Frank> Wyckof method originated from tape reading, Gann was a mathamatical genius,
<gary fullett> the market closed about resistance
<gary fullett> longer term I am friendly
<Frank> and they both did the same thing
<sal> longer termmeaning ?
<gary fullett> correct frank
<gary fullett> well I dont know if they did the same thing though frank
<gary fullett> wyckoff didnt do alot with math
<gary fullett> over the next few months at least
<sal> oj has had two large volume days in feb and held support right?
<lmarsh> I'm fairly new @ wycoff, but I think fibo is right about it being one of most important methods.
<Frank> they did both went to ranges of accumulation or distribution, just different time frames
<gary fullett> correct sal very good
<lmarsh> wycoff, that is
<gary fullett> what do u mean differnt time frame?
<sherri> 
<amos> 
<lmarsh> gotta go folks, good trades tomorrow,...planning paper trades as well, nite.
<fibo> nite lmarsh
<Peggy> nite, Marsh
<mrj> nite marsh
<sal> so with my wheaies , cocoa, and ham, shall we add juice to breakfst soon?
<fibo> lol
<gary fullett> I did want to mention a chart that tested contract lows and reacted nicely today
User [lmarsh] left forum at Wed Mar 01 22:17:18 EST 2000
<Peggy> Breakfast of Champions!!
<gary fullett> it is a chart wehavent talked about recently
<gary fullett> it is rice
<Peggy> month?
<sal> that was my next ?
<gary fullett> sal maybe juice is what is missing Lol
<gary fullett> may
<eric> 
<gary fullett> I think rice can be bouight with a stop under the lows
<sal> does rice respond to cotton?
<Frank> Wycof was a tape reader read the market directly, and gann a more or less seasonal, math ratio
<Frank> time trader,
<fibo> i think Gann read the tape too but never told anyone
<gary fullett> what was ganns time frame?
<fibo> like amos said it is the secret of the market
<gary fullett> what is
<Frank> Gann read the tape and that is how he got his basics, then he put his mathimatical genius to work
<fibo> volume
<Frank> Gann saw numbers the way we can see the sky
<gary fullett> amos do u have a comment ongann
<amos> was a genius
<eric> 
<mrj> 
<Peggy> 
<gary fullett> like u
<fibo> just like you amos
<amos> no
<Frank> so did buffet and rockerfellow
<sherri> 
<Peggy> or is it learned intuition accompanied by personal strengths?
<gary fullett> I think experience
<sal> or learn all the complexities to come back to simplcicity
<gary fullett> in watching amrkets is very critical
<fibo> Wyckoff interviewd Gann when he made all of those trades that everyone talks about
<gary fullett> yes the expresion KISS is very treu
<gary fullett> keep it simple stupid
<gary fullett> as I get more expeirnced
<Frank> you can only be intuitional about that with which you work
<gary fullett> what I learn is I get nformation overload
<sal> amen on overload
<gary fullett> but one must always follow
<gary fullett> markets
<gary fullett> study study
<gary fullett> study
<Frank> organization is the answer to information over load
<gary fullett> I think the hardest job in making money
<gary fullett> is after you make decision
<amos> Gann site: http://www.solarmatrix.com/gann/paylist.htm
<gary fullett> on weather to buy or to sell
<gary fullett> is to be true to yourself
<gary fullett> and say to yourself" Do i think I m right my postion
<gary fullett> by market action and volume
<gary fullett> if so hold your postion
<gary fullett> if Not GET OUT
<gary fullett> if the market action with volume isnt what u expect
<gary fullett> when you enter the market get out
<gary fullett> this is critical
<gary fullett> everyone I mean everyone is guily of this
<gary fullett> we fight the amrket
<gary fullett> market
<gary fullett> we shouldnt in thoery
<Frank> thanks amos,there is one on traders club also
<gary fullett> if we are not right Get out quickly
<gary fullett> your first loss os your best loss
<sal> had lots of best losses:)
<gary fullett> being sensative like tis to market si critical
<gary fullett> and only comes this experience
<gary fullett> exprience will make u run faste
<gary fullett> faster
<gary fullett> running fast is good!!!!!
<gary fullett> questions on what I said?
<gary fullett> and on class tonight?
<Peggy> Thank Kelly for getting the transcripts out so quickly. I get to reread them on my lunch hour!!
<sal> may i ask a semi fundamental ? just out of curiousity?
<gary fullett> I try to have her get them out by 7am the next morning
<gary fullett> I hope they help
<Peggy> y
<gary fullett> yes sal
<gary fullett> of course u may ask anyhting
User [Randy /204.246.241.52] joined forum at Wed Mar 01 22:31:35 EST 2000
<fibo> hi Randy
<Randy> hi
<sal> I was told rice went up cause cotton is going up and therefore more acreage will go to cotton and less to rice
<gary fullett> hi randy hows payroll lol
<gary fullett> yiks
<Randy> done! thank goodness
<sal> is there a spread there?
<Frank> be care full with beans there is a whole river between 514 and 540
<gary fullett> I wuld nt want to touch that one wyckoff wise sal
<gary fullett> Not that I know of
<gary fullett> what do u mean Frank?
<gary fullett> a whole river>?
<sherri> 
<mrj> 
<eric> 
<fibo> 
<gary fullett> well I need to make several phone calls tonight before I get to bed I will see all of you tomorrow night
<gary fullett> I will be send ingxome charts too
<fibo> nite gary thanks
<sherri> nite gary
<gary fullett> some charts
<Peggy> I'm outta here, also. Nite all.
<gary fullett> thank you all...
<amos> nite
<gary fullett> good night see you tomorrow
<fibo> nite Peggy
<sherri> thank you
<mrj> nite peggy
<gary fullett> but all of you can stay and chat
User [amos] left forum at Wed Mar 01 22:34:47 EST 2000
User [Peggy] left forum at Wed Mar 01 22:34:49 EST 2000
<sherri> nite peggy
<gary fullett> good night
User [gary fullett] left forum at Wed Mar 01 22:34:57 EST 2000